U.S. equity markets climbed again Tuesday, extending their record run as investors balanced pre-Fed calm with mounting anticipation around Big Tech earnings. 

The “Magnificent 7” added another 1.3%, lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new all-time highs, even as most other sectors drifted lower and breadth narrowed. 

Treasury yields held near 4%, oil continued its war of attrition at $60 per barrel. Gold fell toward $3,980 an ounce, marking its lowest close in weeks. The dollar was flat against major peers, while volatility remained muted with the VIX near 15. 

Earnings season remains strong, with 87% of companies beating expectations and median year-over-year growth of 11%. UPS surged after a sharp rebound in profit, and UnitedHealth raised its outlook, both reinforcing corporate resilience. 

Microsoft’s finalized 27% stake in OpenAI, alongside PayPal’s integration with ChatGPT, added fresh fuel to the AI narrative driving markets to new heights.

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Today may be the most consequential trading session of the quarter. The Federal Reserve is set to announce another 25-basis-point rate cut, continuing its cautious effort to insure against a potential slowdown. 

The ongoing government shutdown has deprived policymakers of key labor and inflation data, forcing the Fed to navigate in near-fog conditions. Markets fully expect Chair Powell to stress flexibility and risk management, while signaling that the long-running balance-sheet runoff may be nearing an end.

After the close, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta will deliver their quarterly results, setting the tone for the second half of earnings week. 

With the S&P 500 up more than 17% year-to-date and valuations stretched, investors will be searching for proof that the AI boom is broadening beyond a handful of dominant names. The rally’s concentration has grown stark: over the past five sessions, technology remains the only sector to outperform the index.

Yet robust margins across industrials, financials, and utilities suggest the market’s underlying foundation remains sturdier than headlines imply.

For now, investors continue to climb a quiet wall of worry, balancing belief in earnings and liquidity against the unease of unknown data. 

Every new high feels less like a sprint and more like a controlled ascent, steady, deliberate, and rooted in faith that the expansion still has room to breathe.

The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting concludes this afternoon, with a quarter-point rate cut to the 3.75%–4.00% range fully priced in. Chair Powell’s remarks will carry extra weight given the lack of recent employment or inflation figures during the fifth week of the government shutdown. 

The statement is expected to emphasize a “moderate” growth outlook and acknowledge lingering uncertainty. Several analysts anticipate Powell will confirm that the Fed’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet has reached its lower comfort range, setting the stage for an end to quantitative tightening before year-end.

The Bank of Canada also meets today and is widely expected to follow the Fed’s easing path, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan remain on hold. Together, their actions are shaping a synchronized turn toward accommodation that is reintroducing stability to global currency and bond markets heading into the final quarter.

President Trump’s Asia tour continues to dominate the geopolitical backdrop. After signing a rare-earth supply deal in Tokyo with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Trump arrives in South Korea today for bilateral meetings ahead of Thursday’s high-stakes summit with China’s Xi Jinping in Busan.

The Japan agreement strengthens supply-chain independence from Beijing and underscores Washington’s push to secure critical mineral flows across the Indo-Pacific.

Analysts expect the Trump–Xi meeting to yield an initial tariff rollback in exchange for Beijing’s promise to curb fentanyl exports and ease export restrictions on rare earths. 

While the policy impact may take years to materialize, the optics of cooperation are already filtering into markets as a sign that trade and technology rivalry may be stabilizing into a more predictable framework.

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In Washington, the government shutdown entered its 29th day, deepening political strain as ACA premium data reignited partisan divides. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services reported that average benchmark plan premiums will jump 26% in 2026, sparking renewed Democratic calls to preserve expanded subsidies that Republicans have tied to broader budget talks.

Meanwhile, President Trump addressed speculation about a potential third term, telling reporters on Air Force One that “it’s too bad” but “I’m not allowed to run,” confirming the constitutional limit as his allies circulated 2028 campaign merchandise. The remarks came as he prepared for his South Korea visit, signaling an effort to refocus attention on trade diplomacy and away from domestic political theater.

Pending Home Sales
Fed Interest Rate Decision

MSFT              FB
GOOG           CAT
NOW              VZ
BA                  KLAC
ADP               CVS
SBUX             EQIX
FISV               AEP
CMG               PSX
PSA                EBAY
ETR                OTIS
PRU

Asia: Nikkei +2.17%, Shanghai +0.70%
Europe: FTSE +0.59%, DAX +0.02%

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Markets continue to lean toward optimism. Confidence in earnings and policy support is outweighing data gaps and political noise. As traders brace for Powell’s words and Big Tech’s numbers, the broader tone remains constructive: risk appetite anchored in discipline, not exuberance. 

The climb may be slow, but it is steady, and for now, belief in soft landings and stronger margins continues to hold.