Stocks opened November on uneven footing as investors weighed strong tech momentum against a softer backdrop for the broader market. The Nasdaq rose 0.4%, lifted by Amazon’s 4.5% jump after it announced a $38 billion cloud deal with OpenAI, while the S&P 500 finished flat and the Dow slipped 0.3%. 

Gains in technology and consumer discretionary masked weakness elsewhere, with just two sectors closing higher as market breadth narrowed further.

Bond yields held near 4.1% and the dollar strengthened, signaling a modest pullback in expectations for a December Fed cut. 

Gold reclaimed the $4,000 mark, and oil steadied around $61. The tone was cautious but orderly, traders appeared more interested in protecting recent gains than extending them.

After a six-month run that’s pushed valuations toward cycle highs, the market looks to be catching its breath. 

Investors are now facing a landscape shaped less by data and more by inference, with the government shutdown delaying key releases and Fed officials offering divergent signals on next steps.

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Overnight, caution replaced momentum. Asian indexes tumbled from record highs as investors took profits after weeks of tech-driven gains, while European markets followed lower amid fading risk appetite and renewed dollar strength. 

Futures point sharply down ahead of the open, with the Nasdaq 100 off 1.3%, S&P 500 down nearly 1%, and Dow futures lower by about 0.7%.

The shift comes as several Wall Street leaders, including Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon and Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick, warned of a potential 10–20% correction over the next year, calling recent moves “healthy pullbacks” rather than signs of crisis. 

Their comments echoed a broader theme from the Hong Kong investment summit, where executives from HSBC and General Atlantic cautioned that AI spending has outpaced near-term revenue, stoking concerns about capital misallocation and valuation risk.

Michael Burry added fuel to the skepticism, revealing sizable short positions against Nvidia and Palantir in his latest regulatory filing, a contrarian challenge to the core of this year’s rally. 

Meanwhile, the dollar climbed to three-month highs as traders dialed back bets on a December Fed cut, and yields edged higher in thin overnight trading.

Taken together, the tone feels more watchful than fearful. After months of relentless upside, investors appear to be see-sawing between belief in AI’s promise and patience for its payoff, a balance that could set the tone for the week ahead.

The Federal Reserve’s messaging remains divided as policymakers navigate a data blackout and a shifting inflation outlook. 

Governor Lisa Cook said Monday that December’s meeting is “live” for another potential rate cut but stressed that any move will depend on incoming information, much of which is unavailable during the government shutdown. 

Cook noted that inflation remains “somewhat elevated due to tariff effects,” while the job market is cooling faster than expected.

Her remarks follow contrasting tones from other Fed officials in recent days. Governor Stephen Miran continues to argue that policy is too restrictive, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has warned against easing further with inflation still above target. 

The Fed’s latest cut left the policy rate in a 3.75–4.00% range, but Powell’s post-meeting language signaled growing discomfort about moving too quickly without reliable data.

Markets are now pricing roughly a two-thirds chance of a December cut, down from more than 90% a week ago. That repricing has lifted the dollar, kept Treasury yields firm, and reinforced the sense that the next phase of easing, whenever it comes, will be slower, smaller, and harder to predict.

If Wall Street’s caution marks one front of the global adjustment, China’s data represent another. 

Fixed-asset investment across infrastructure, manufacturing, and construction fell year-over-year for the first time in more than three decades outside the pandemic, signaling a sharp loss of momentum in what was once the world’s most reliable engine of capital formation. 

Beijing’s muted policy response suggests it sees the slowdown as structural rather than cyclical, partly a consequence of its campaign against “disorderly competition.” 

Some analysts suspect local governments are deliberately understating activity to align with central guidance, leaving investors uncertain whether the data reflect weakness or statistical “rectification.”

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court’s pending review of Trump’s sweeping tariffs has added fresh tension to global trade. A ruling against the administration could unwind hundreds of billions in revenue and unsettle negotiations tied to investment commitments.

Oil remains steady near $61 a barrel following OPEC+’s decision to pause production hikes in early 2026, but the mix of capital intensity, policy uncertainty, and uneven demand underscores how fragile this expansion has become beneath the surface.

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The federal shutdown reached its 34th day Monday, on pace to become the longest in U.S. history. Court-ordered contingency funding will cover only half of November’s SNAP food benefits, leaving 40 million recipients uncertain about the size and timing of their payments. 

While the administration insists essential programs remain funded, growing strain on households and state agencies is starting to erode confidence in Washington’s ability to govern through disruption.

Political attention now turns to today’s state elections in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia, a referendum of sorts on President Trump’s first year back in office. 

In New York City, progressive Democrat Zohran Mamdani faces former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, in a race that has exposed the Democratic Party’s widening rift between younger socialists and establishment moderates. 

In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds a narrow lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in a record-breaking contest fueled by national party spending. Virginia’s race appears less competitive, with Democrat Abigail Spanberger favored to win.

Turnout is high, and so are expectations. For Democrats, these contests test whether affordability and anti-Trump messaging still resonate in an economy running hot but uneven. 

For Republicans, they gauge whether Trump’s coalition can mobilize without him on the ballot. With voter disapproval of the president’s economic management topping 60%, today’s results will offer the clearest reading yet on whether policy fatigue is translating into political risk.

Fed Speaker: Bowman

AMD       UBER
ANET      AMGN
PFE        MAR
APO        ZTS
MPC        AFL
AAXN      MPLX
AIG         EXC
CTVA      YUM
MLM       LYV

Asia: Nikkei -1.74%, Shanghai -0.41%
Europe: FTSE -0.58%, DAX -1.34%

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Markets enter Tuesday in a defensive mood after weeks of near-vertical gains in technology stocks. The AI narrative remains powerful but increasingly polarizing, with leaders warning of valuation excess and macro headwinds compounding the uncertainty. 

Futures point lower across the board, Nasdaq down 1.3%, S&P 500 off nearly 1%, as traders weigh record capex against fading visibility on growth.

Overseas, Asian equities reversed sharply from record highs, with profit-taking sweeping Tokyo, Taipei, and Seoul after a months-long rally. European benchmarks followed suit as the dollar climbed to a three-month high, reflecting reduced odds of a December rate cut. 

The RBA’s decision to hold rates steady underscored a global pause in policy easing, while the Fed’s own division, highlighted by Governor Lisa Cook calling December “live” but uncertain, adds to the air of caution.

In Washington, the government shutdown’s drag on data leaves investors flying partially blind. Without official job or inflation reports, markets are left to private surveys and earnings as imperfect proxies for momentum. 

For now, liquidity from the Fed’s balance-sheet halt and resilient corporate profits still buffer sentiment, but breadth remains narrow and conviction fragile. The coming sessions will test whether this rally can broaden—or whether fatigue at the top finally starts to spill down the curve.