Equities started the week with conviction as risk appetite returned across global markets. The S&P 500 and Dow advanced more than 1 percent Monday, pushing within sight of record highs after investors brushed aside last week’s credit concerns and renewed optimism over U.S.–China trade talks.

National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said he expects the government shutdown to end this week, adding fuel to the rebound in confidence. 

Shares of regional banks, which were at the center of last week’s anxiety, extended their recovery, while small caps and the Nasdaq led on renewed growth optimism. 

Apple reached a new high for the year on strong iPhone demand, and Amazon’s AWS unit rebounded after an early morning outage temporarily knocked major sites offline.

On trade, President Trump outlined new U.S. priorities ahead of talks in Malaysia, seeking expanded rare earth exports, higher soybean imports, and a halt to fentanyl precursor shipments. He also hinted at tariff carveouts that could signal a softening stance before his meeting with Xi Jinping next week. 

The easing tone helped global stocks rally, with Japan’s Nikkei briefly crossing 50,000 as markets bet on incoming Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus agenda.

Gold jumped over 3 percent to $4,359 an ounce, reversing Friday’s profit-taking, while the 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4 percent. Oil hovered near $57 a barrel. Natural gas surged nearly 13 percent, its biggest single-day jump since June.

Despite the upbeat start, investors remain aware of the near-term headwinds: lingering credit fragility, trade uncertainty, and a softening labor backdrop masked by the data blackout. Yet the broader picture still favors resilience. 

With corporate profits climbing, AI investment accelerating, fiscal incentives taking hold, and monetary easing set to continue, the market’s underlying trend remains constructive heading into 2026.

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Futures are slightly lower this morning after Monday’s broad rally, with traders pausing ahead of a heavy slate of earnings. Dow futures were down 0.2 percent, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures off 0.1 percent each. 

Nearly one-fifth of S&P 500 companies report this week, led by Coca-Cola, 3M, GM, and Netflix.

Netflix headlines after the close, with investors looking for clues on subscriber growth and ad-tier traction. GM beat expectations before the bell, raised its full-year guidance, and cut its projected tariff impact by half, citing stronger demand and supply chain stabilization.

Overseas, Asia set an upbeat tone. Japan’s Nikkei extended gains to record territory, while Australia and Korea also closed higher. In Europe, the DAX is up modestly, and the FTSE is little changed.

Gold has eased from Monday’s highs, and the dollar is slightly firmer against the yen.

Sentiment remains buoyed by hopes that Trump’s planned meeting with Xi in South Korea will deliver at least a temporary truce before the November 10 tariff deadline. The U.S.–Australia rare-earth supply pact, valued at $8.5 billion, also helped reinforce optimism about diversifying critical mineral dependencies.

The Federal Reserve enters the final stretch before its October 29 meeting with little fresh data and an unusually wide range of opinions among policymakers. 

With the government shutdown delaying key reports, the central bank is relying on private indicators and corporate intelligence to gauge activity.

Officials remain split over how deeply to cut, balancing a slowing labor market against still-firm GDP growth near 3 percent. Derivative markets have fully priced a quarter-point reduction next week, with another possible by year-end.

Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the data vacuum last week, saying policymakers must “use judgment to fill the gaps.”

In Europe, the ECB has turned more cautious. Chief economist Philip Lane warned of funding risks if dollar liquidity tightens, a reminder of how fragile global credit plumbing remains even as risk appetite recovers. 

Japan’s central bank meets next week, with traders assigning only a 20 percent chance of a rate hike under incoming Prime Minister Takaichi’s expected pro-growth stance.

Geopolitical currents remain fast-moving. U.S.–China trade talks resume this week in Malaysia, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng, amid reports the White House is open to targeted tariff exemptions. The tone has softened since Trump called existing duties “not sustainable,” raising expectations for an interim framework before his bilateral with Xi.

Elsewhere, Washington’s posture toward Venezuela has hardened. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is spearheading a campaign to squeeze Nicolás Maduro through sanctions, military posturing, and narcotics-linked crackdowns, a move seen as both domestic theater and foreign leverage. 

In the Middle East, a tenuous ceasefire in Gaza is holding thanks to U.S. pressure, with Jared Kushner and Vice President J.D. Vance in Israel this week to ensure compliance as negotiations on a multinational peacekeeping force begin.

At the same time, China’s export restrictions on rare-earth magnets tightened in September, with shipments to the U.S. down nearly 30 percent year-on-year. The U.S.–Australia minerals deal aims to offset that gap, reflecting a broader industrial decoupling even as trade rhetoric softens.

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The government shutdown has entered its twentieth day, though officials are signaling progress. Hassett’s comments that a resolution is “likely this week” helped calm markets Monday, but much of the data void remains. 

The missing September CPI, slated for release Friday, will be the first major report since the closure and could influence the Fed’s December outlook.

In the courts, former FBI Director James Comey moved to dismiss his criminal case, arguing the prosecution is politically motivated and that interim U.S. Attorney Lindsey Halligan was unlawfully appointed. The case adds another legal flashpoint to an already polarized climate in Washington.

No notable releases

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Asia: Nikkei +0.27%, Shanghai +1.36%
Europe: FTSE +0.20%, DAX -0.12%

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Markets are consolidating near record highs as investors rotate back into equities and await a torrent of earnings that could define the next leg of the rally.

Confidence has returned quickly, but volatility has been quick to appear. For now, the dominant story remains one of recovery, credit stress receding, trade thawing, and policy makers preparing to ease. The path forward may narrow, but momentum is still with the bulls.