Markets carried their rally into Monday, extending last week’s record run despite the government shutdown entering its second week. Futures pointed to modest gains across all major U.S. indexes, with the Dow and S&P 500 on pace for seven straight advances. AI enthusiasm, falling rate expectations, and resilient corporate momentum continued to outweigh Washington gridlock.

The S&P 500 added 1.1% last week, the Nasdaq climbed 1.3%, and the Dow matched those gains with its 11th record close of the year. Treasury yields softened, with the 10-year finishing the week at 4.09%. 

Gold surged to a new high above $3,900 and Bitcoin continues to flirt with the $125,000 level. Oil had a rough week, but held above $60 as OPEC+ raised production less than expected, even as refining slowdowns and weak demand forecasts limited upside.

Economic visibility remains clouded by the shutdown. The Labor Department confirmed that September’s jobs report, expected to show roughly 50,000 new positions and unemployment steady at 4.3%, will not be released until funding resumes. 

With the BLS, BEA, and Census data all offline, investors are relying on private metrics like ADP payrolls, which showed a 32,000 job loss, and S&P Global’s services PMI, which slipped to 50.0 with its employment component still in contraction. The patchwork of signals points to a labor market cooling but not cracking, giving the Fed leeway to cut again later this month.

Markets shrugged off the data blackout. The AI trade remains the engine, semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and power technology stocks continue to dominate inflows. The SOX semiconductor index logged its sixth consecutive advance to fresh highs, while mega-cap tech names led gains across the board. Even defensive sectors like financials and industrials found support as investors embraced the “buy the dip” mentality through uncertainty.

On the macro front, falling search interest in the phrase “AI bubble” underscores a shift in sentiment from fear to acceptance. Analysts at Deutsche Bank and Bank of America see the current cycle echoing the late stages of past manias but note that strong corporate cash flows and tangible AI infrastructure spending may extend this run. Futures markets now price a 95% chance of another quarter-point Fed cut at the October meeting.

AI is fueling the Fourth Industrial Revolution – and these 10 stocks are front and center.

One of them makes $40K accelerator chips with a full-stack platform that all but guarantees wide adoption.

Another leads warehouse automation, with a $23B backlog – including all 47 distribution centers of a top U.S. retailer – plus a JV to lease robots to mid-market operators.

From core infrastructure to automation leaders, these companies and other leaders are all in The 10 Best AI Stocks to Own in 2025.

Free today, – grab it before the paywall locks.

Traders begin the week focused on a market running hot and a policy backdrop running blind. With the government shutdown extending into its second week, the economic calendar is thinner than usual and official labor data is still frozen. That makes this Wednesday’s Fed minutes and Friday’s University of Michigan sentiment survey the only directional signposts before next week’s third-quarter earnings season kicks off.

Markets have fully priced a 25-basis-point rate cut at the late-October FOMC meeting, and with Chair Powell lacking fresh data, investors expect policy guidance to hinge on tone rather than numbers. Bond yields have ticked higher, but equity momentum remains intact, particularly in AI, energy, and industrial technology. The semiconductor index has logged six straight weeks of gains, and rotational flows continue into power infrastructure, robotics, and quantum-computing plays as traders seek new expressions of the AI build-out theme.

Valuation anxiety persists. The S&P 500’s multiple has climbed to its richest level since 2000, and sentiment gauges are flashing complacency, yet capital keeps chasing upside in the absence of macro clarity. This week’s corporate commentary from Constellation Brands, McCormick, Delta, and PepsiCo will offer the first read on consumer resilience heading into Q4.

Oil’s modest rebound following a smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output hike adds another layer to the inflation debate. If crude stabilizes above $60 and gold holds above $3,900, the Fed’s case for another cut strengthens, but so does skepticism about how long asset prices can defy policy gravity.

In short, the market enters the week stretched, data-starved, and still leaning bullish. Momentum remains the message, until earnings, or Washington, forces a new one.

Central banks enter the week overshadowed by politics and constrained by missing data. In the United States, the Fed faces a policy meeting later this month with no official jobs report or inflation read, leaving futures markets to price near certainty of a quarter-point cut. The absence of data has not dulled market conviction; instead, traders are leaning on corporate guidance and high-frequency labor proxies to interpret growth.

Abroad, the monetary picture is fragmenting. Japan’s selection of Sanae Takaichi as prime minister effectively resets expectations for Bank of Japan tightening. Takaichi’s support for further fiscal stimulus and her alignment with former Prime Minister Abe’s reflationary playbook sent the yen to new lows and equities to record highs, easing domestic financial conditions but amplifying volatility across Asia’s currency markets. In Europe, Emmanuel Macron’s latest government collapse has widened French spreads and reinforced calls within the ECB to slow balance-sheet reduction until political risk subsides.

Meanwhile, oil’s modest rebound after OPEC+ approved a smaller-than-expected output increase adds a new input to inflation models. With WTI still near $60 and global growth signals soft, the path of least resistance for most central banks remains toward easier policy, even as politics, not data, set the tempo.

Geopolitics is again intruding on markets from multiple directions. The most immediate tension centers on the Trump-brokered Gaza peace plan, which ties a 48-hostage release to a cease-fire, demilitarization, and eventual technocratic governance. The proposal has fractured Israel’s ruling coalition and forced Prime Minister Netanyahu into rare public concessions to Qatar under U.S. pressure. 

Beyond Gaza, China’s covert oil-for-infrastructure financing with Iran underscores how parallel financial systems are forming beyond U.S. oversight, enabling sanctioned regimes to move billions outside SWIFT channels. The arrangement cements Beijing’s foothold in the Middle East while blunting the bite of Western sanctions.

At the same time, Ukraine’s campaign against Russian refineries continues to disrupt regional fuel supplies, France’s political instability is spilling into euro-area markets, and Japan’s political pivot is reshaping Asian capital flows. Collectively, these forces point to a global order in flux, one where financial conditions and security alignments are shifting faster than traditional diplomacy can keep pace. For now, markets remain resilient, but geopolitical friction is the new constant.

If you think there's something strange about the "feud" between Trump and Musk…

You need to see THIS jaw-dropping video…

Because it explains what could REALLY be going on behind the scenes…

And how it could hand investors a stake in a $12 trillion revolution.

Click here now to see the full story.

Washington remains mired in political paralysis as the federal government shutdown enters its second week, with little pressure yet to break the impasse. Neither party appears inclined to move first: Republicans insist Democrats reopen the government before negotiating on Affordable Care Act subsidies, while Democrats demand the subsidies’ extension be part of any funding bill.

The standoff is already disrupting key data releases and beginning to ripple through the economy. The White House has paused funding for infrastructure and energy projects in Democratic-led states and, if talks stall further, advisers say President Trump may authorize mass layoffs of federal employees, a legally untested move that has drawn lawsuits from unions and warnings from scholars.

Meanwhile, the confrontation over federal authority widened over the weekend after a federal judge in Oregon blocked the Trump administration from deploying any National Guard under its control inside the state. The administration’s effort to sidestep that ruling by sending troops from California and Texas was swiftly rebuked by the court, which called the maneuver a “direct contravention” of its order. Governors from Oregon, California, and Illinois have condemned the deployments, while Texas Governor Greg Abbott endorsed the president’s move.

Taken together, the disputes over funding and force deployment reflect the deeper breakdown in intergovernmental trust. Federal authority is expanding in some areas even as normal governance grinds to a halt. For markets and policy watchers alike, Washington’s stalemate is now as much about the boundaries of presidential power as it is about the budget itself.

Markets remain untethered from Washington and geopolitical risk, powered instead by liquidity, technology, and expectations of a dovish Fed. While the shutdown clouds visibility, it has not shaken confidence in the broader rally. As one strategist put it, “The data may be missing, but the trend isn’t.” The real question now is how long sentiment can defy gravity without fundamental guidance.