TQ Morning Briefing

Markets Poised for a Clean Re-Open and Fresh Data

From the T&Q Desk

Markets extended their rotation on Wednesday as investors positioned for the formal end of the 43-day government shutdown.

The Dow closed above 48,000 for the first time, powered by broad strength in health care, financials, and industrials, while the S&P 500 finished modestly higher and the Nasdaq slipped again as megacap tech and AI names remained under pressure.

Value continued to lead as investors took profits in momentum sectors and reallocated toward defensive and cash-flow-rich names. Gold surged to fresh records above $4,200 an ounce, while oil fell sharply after the IEA projected a significant 2026 surplus.

Bond yields eased to early-month lows with the 10-year around 4.07 percent, reflecting caution ahead of the data backlog expected next week.

Markets now turn fully toward Washington, where the House passed the Senate’s funding bill and President Trump signed it late Wednesday, formally reopening the government and setting the stage for the first release of delayed federal economic data.

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Word Around the Street

Equity futures are quiet in early trading as investors look through the shutdown resolution and refocus on the Fed’s December path.

Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures are all slightly in the red, bouncing between 0.1% and 0.2% lower as the rotation theme persists.

Cisco is pacing premarket gainers after raising its full-year outlook on strong AI-driven networking demand. JD.com is higher after beating estimates, while Western Digital, Micron, and Sandisk are weaker following disappointing results from Japan’s Kioxia.

The dollar is softer as the Swiss franc and yen gain modestly, and gold continues to hold above $4,200. Oil remains under pressure with WTI near $58 a barrel after Wednesday’s steep slide. The yield on the 10-year continues to trend lower on the end of the shutdown.

With the government now reopening, traders expect delayed September payrolls to arrive as early as next week, though the White House says October CPI and jobs data may never be released.

Global Policy Watch

Japan’s yen continues to weaken against major currencies after Prime Minister Takaichi pushed back on rate hikes, even as the BOJ signaled its commitment to moderate inflation alongside wage growth.

Australia’s surprise jump in October employment has markets trimming expectations for near-term rate cuts, lifting the Aussie in regional trading.

In Europe, equities are pressing back toward record highs with the STOXX 600 and CAC 40 advancing, offsetting a sharp drop in Siemens after underwhelming results.

Global bond markets remain stable with Germany’s 10-year yield around 2.65 percent, while emerging-market funds have turned more constructive on Latin America and Taiwan Semiconductor, according to new HSBC positioning data.

Trade Winds & Global Shifts

U.S. intelligence officials are tracking increased Russian troop consolidation around Pokrovsk as winter negotiations stall.

The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group remains off Venezuela’s coast in a move the White House describes as counternarcotics-oriented, though the deployment’s strike capability is drawing geopolitical scrutiny.

In Asia, Tencent’s strong results offered a tentative read on the resilience of Chinese consumer spending, while SMIC earnings later today will be watched closely for signs of strain under U.S.–China semiconductor restrictions.

European energy markets remain unsettled after OPEC’s revised 2026 forecast signaled a potential supply glut, pressuring crude benchmarks across the board.

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D.C. in the Driver’s Seat

The government is officially reopening today after President Trump signed the funding bill late Wednesday night in the Oval Office, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history.

Federal agencies are expected to resume normal operations over the next several days, with back pay for workers set to be processed “at the earliest date possible.”

Air-traffic disruptions will take longer to resolve, with the FAA still facing staffing shortages that may extend into next week. SNAP funding is expected to begin flowing once federal systems are restarted, though timing will vary by state.

The White House continues to take a hard line on fiscal and regulatory fronts, and the Supreme Court announced it will hear arguments on January 21 over the administration’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

Markets will also watch today’s series of Fed speeches for any shift in tone as policymakers prepare for a December meeting without full October economic data.

Economic Data

Fed Speaker: Hammack
**Government data releases expected to be rescheduled beginning next week, starting with September jobs and inflation reports.

Earnings Reports

DIS
AMAT
CPRT

Overnight Markets

Asia: Nikkei +0.43%, Shanghai +0.73%
Europe: FTSE 100 -0.56%, DAX -0.70%

U.S. Pre-Market

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Opening Outlook

Thursday opens with a tone of measured caution as traders digest the government’s reopening and look ahead to the wave of delayed economic releases.

Rotation into value and cyclicals remains the dominant theme, while megacap tech continues to face pressure amid profit-taking and renewed scrutiny of AI-driven capital expenditures.

Bond yields are steady near 4.05 percent, gold is holding its recent breakout, and oil remains under heavy supply-driven pressure.

Investors will focus on Fed commentary throughout the day, Disney’s earnings call, and early signals on how quickly federal agencies can resume data operations, all key inputs to market expectations for the final Fed meeting of 2025.

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