Good morning Traders and Quants! Wall Street started the week with another round of record closes. The Nasdaq rose 0.7% and the S&P 500 and Dow followed higher, powered by Nvidia’s 4% jump after pledging up to $100 billion in OpenAI. Small caps joined in, with the Russell 2000 extending gains. 

Gold surged to yet another record above $3,770, ETF inflows now at a three-year high, while Treasuries sold off slightly and the 10-year yield hovered near 4.14%. Oil eased but stayed within its $60–65 range. Futures this morning are flat to slightly lower as investors look to Jerome Powell’s speech later today and fresh PMI readings for clues on the Fed’s next moves.

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The Nvidia–OpenAI announcement lit up tech and power names, cementing the AI-and-energy nexus as the market’s dominant theme. Nvidia intends to deploy 10 gigawatts of systems for OpenAI’s next-gen training runs, an investment equivalent to 2.5 nuclear plants or 15 gas plants. That scale is fueling bull flows into uranium, nuclear, and grid infrastructure plays. JPMorgan highlighted record corporate buyback activity underpinning the rally, even as labor market signals cool. 

The OECD added fuel, nudging its U.S. growth forecast higher, though it warned tariffs could blunt momentum in 2026. For traders, the setup remains frothy: six months without a meaningful pullback, record highs across majors, and speculative pockets (quantum, space, nuclear micro-caps) seeing outsized gains. Powell’s remarks and PCE data later this week could test whether momentum extends or stalls.

The Fed may have set the tone with last week’s cut, but policy divergence is still in focus. Traders are pricing in two more quarter-point reductions by year-end, though several Fed officials are expected to push back in speeches this week. 

In Japan, a hawkish hold from the BOJ has markets bracing for a possible rate hike later this year, keeping the yen volatile. Meanwhile, the Bank of England faces growing pressure after weak UK fiscal data and sticky inflation, with sterling sliding to a two-week low. 

In Europe, the ECB is balancing slowing growth against energy shocks tied to Russian sanctions, while Sweden’s Riksbank could deliver what many expect to be the last cut of its cycle on Tuesday. 

Taken together, the picture is less synchronized easing and more patchwork adjustment, with the Fed’s moves still setting the global tempo.

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U.S. lawmakers arrived in Beijing pushing for renewed military dialogue, highlighting the uneasy coexistence of tariff fights and security talks. Meanwhile, China is flooding global markets with cheap exports, from EV batteries to semis, as it races to offset Trump’s tariff wall, stoking fears of a “second China shock.” 

In the Middle East, recognition of a Palestinian state by the UK, Canada, Australia, and Portugal provoked furious calls from Netanyahu’s ministers to annex the West Bank. Diplomatic fallout could deepen, with France and others poised to follow at the UN. 

Separately, drone incursions over Scandinavia forced airport closures, a reminder of how hybrid tactics are testing NATO’s defenses. At the UN General Assembly, Trump doubled down on distancing the U.S. from multilateralism, stressing sovereignty over global cooperation.

The government shutdown clock is ticking. Odds markets now put the chance of a partial shutdown above 50% with funding set to expire Sept. 30. Speaker Mike Johnson is pushing a stopgap through Nov. 21, but margins are razor-thin. Trump continues to pressure Democrats, framing the fight as leverage on immigration and spending caps. 

Meanwhile, the administration’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee is reverberating through Silicon Valley and India’s IT sector, with economists warning of long-term drag on U.S. productivity if talent flows dry up. 

On the regulatory front, Jimmy Kimmel’s suspension is over, ABC will return his show tonight, but the broader fight over free speech continues as Republicans spar over FCC threats and DOJ targeting of “hate speech.” 

Finally, Trump’s decision to target a common painkiller in autism debates is drawing backlash from his own advisers, another example of policy driven more by rhetoric than consensus.

Asia: Nikkei 0.99%, Shanghai -0.18%
Europe: FTSE 0.02%, DAX 0.22%

Markets are riding a perfect storm of AI euphoria, record buybacks, and easy money expectations, but the macro undercurrents are shifting. The $100,000 visa fee highlights how immigration policy could pinch labor supply just as tariffs lift costs, complicating the Fed’s glidepath. 

Abroad, China’s export deluge and West Bank annexation talk point to rising geopolitical fractures. With Powell on deck and shutdown odds climbing, this week could test how much longer investors are willing to ignore the noise. For now, momentum remains the trade, but the backdrop is getting heavier.