The market returned from Thanksgiving with a different posture than the one it carried into the holiday. 

Friday’s calm, orderly tape is gone. What replaced it is a risk environment marked by renewed volatility, fresh cross currents in policy expectations, and the sharpest central bank divergence setup in more than a year.

The catalyst is not a single event. It is the combination of a frozen futures market, a sliding crypto complex, a possible rate hike in Japan, and a Federal Reserve that is heading into its December meeting with a voting body that is visibly split. 

Add in OPEC stability, Moscow diplomacy, and a new round of political pressure at home, and markets begin December without the clarity they hoped to bring into the final stretch of the year.

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Futures opened the new month under pressure. 

Nasdaq futures led declines as investors unwound part of the late November rally. Bitcoin fell through $87,000, pulling down crypto leverage plays including Coinbase and Strategy. 

Japan added to the tension as JGB yields jumped to levels last seen in 2008 after Governor Ueda signaled that the Bank of Japan will weigh the pros and cons of a rate hike in December.

The CME outage lingered in the background. Friday’s session was still overshadowed by the prior night’s failure in futures, which froze benchmarks across equities, Treasuries, commodities, and currencies. 

Several desks noted the impact on positioning algorithms that were forced into manual mode until markets came back online at the open.

Friday’s equity performance remains the anchor for sentiment. All three major indexes ended higher for the week. The S&P gained almost four percent, the Nasdaq nearly five, and the Dow more than three. 

For the month, the S&P and Dow extended their seven month win streaks. The Nasdaq broke its own streak but avoided a deeper retracement.

Sector leadership rotated again. Energy, financials, materials, and industrials carried the day. Healthcare slipped. REITs joined the winners as rates steadied near four percent. Advancers beat decliners two point five to one in light holiday volume.

Precious metals surged. Gold hit four month highs and silver broke to new records. Miners followed. Crypto’s early bounce reversed sharply by the close, underscoring a new round of fragility in digital assets as the correlation with risk sentiment climbs.

Oil rallied two percent as OPEC plus held output steady and supply risk increased after a drone strike halted CPC exports. Venezuelan tension added another layer after the White House declared the surrounding airspace closed.

The market enters December carrying strong seasonality, but traders are navigating a tape that is no longer aligned with the statistical comfort that December usually provides.

The Federal Reserve heads into the December 9th-10th meeting with a voting slate that is fractured. Nearly ninety percent of market pricing implies a quarter point cut. The committee does not reflect that consensus.

Waller remains the most vocal advocate for cuts as a form of insurance. Williams said he sees room for a near term reduction. Miran and Bowman lean dovish and dissented in favor of easing earlier this year.

Powell is signaling uncertainty. Jefferson and Cook are hedging. Barr warns that inflation remains too elevated. Collins, Schmid, Goolsbee, and Musalem caution that another cut is premature or potentially risky.

The result is an unusually close call. The last time the Fed saw multiple dissents this frequently was before the pandemic. That is not lost on traders heading into a meeting shaped by delayed data, incomplete labor market visibility, and political pressure from the White House.

Global divergence sharpened overnight. The Bank of Japan may hike in December for the first time in years. The European Central Bank waits for inflation prints from Germany and France. The dollar is struggling after its worst week in four months. The yen is firming. Gold is rising.

Policy visibility remains thin. The macro picture is built on gaps rather than clean signals, and that leaves rate expectations fragile to incoming data.

Ukraine negotiations accelerated over the weekend. Witkoff, Rubio, and Kushner met with Ukrainian officials in Florida for more than four hours, discussing elections, land swaps, and security guarantees. 

The revised nineteen point framework now goes to Moscow. The White House confirmed that Witkoff will meet Putin this week.

Ukraine gave tentative support to the updated plan. Russia responded cautiously. Putin said it could serve as a basis for future agreements but reiterated that the war will end only when Ukrainian troops withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk, including areas not under Russian control.

Russian military bloggers and the Institute for the Study of War remain skeptical that Moscow will accept any proposal that curtails territorial goals. Zelensky faces internal pressure following corruption scandals and the constitutional complexities of any territorial change or new elections.

In the Western Hemisphere, tension with Venezuela escalated. Trump declared the airspace surrounding the country closed and suggested land strikes might be imminent. 

The U.S. has deployed significant assets to the Caribbean, expanded radar and logistics access, and conducted more than twenty deadly maritime strikes since September. Venezuela condemned the posture and launched its own inquiry into recent boat strike deaths.

Both theaters are feeding market risk premia that sit uneasily with year end positioning.

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Congress opened bipartisan inquiries into reports that U.S. forces conducted a second lethal strike against survivors of an alleged drug boat attack. Lawmakers across both parties warned that the described incident, if accurate, could constitute a war crime.

The Pentagon declined to address specifics. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth insisted operations remain lawful. Trump said he did not want a second strike and claimed Hegseth told him no such strike occurred.

The scrutiny lands amid a broader political fight over military authority. The White House publicly attacked major news outlets for coverage of a video in which Democratic lawmakers reminded troops they can refuse illegal orders. The FBI is seeking interviews with those lawmakers.

Separately, Trump announced he is revoking all executive orders Biden signed with an autopen and directed investigations into Biden’s mental fitness. Legal experts note that while executive orders can be rescinded, pardons and commutations cannot be undone.

Domestic politics now intersect with foreign policy and military operations in a way that is directly influencing markets as December opens.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

No notable reports

Asia: Nikkei -1.89%, Shanghai +0.65%
Europe: FTSE 100 -0.04%, DAX -1.43%

(Reflecting CME disruption and limited actionable data)

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December begins with more questions than answers. Futures are lower. Crypto is sliding. Japan is preparing markets for a possible hike. The Fed is walking into its next meeting divided. Geopolitical risk is rising on two fronts.

The signal from Friday’s rally is still intact. The stability behind it is not.

The first three sessions of the month will tell traders whether last week’s strength has staying power or whether the tape is ready to reset once more.