Markets steadied overnight as investors absorbed a flood of earnings, a wave of new sanctions, and the calm before Friday’s inflation reckoning. 

Futures pointed higher after Wednesday’s selloff, with oil prices climbing above $61 on coordinated U.S. and EU sanctions against Russia’s energy exports and equity markets finding tentative footing after a volatile stretch.

The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 3.95 percent, its lowest since 2024, while the dollar strengthened modestly against the yen and euro ahead of the CPI release. 

With the government still in shutdown, the data vacuum has left traders flying blind, grasping for cues in earnings reports and global policy moves. For now, optimism still rests on corporate resilience and the expectation that rate cuts are near.

Tesla’s post-earnings drop weighed on sentiment early, but upbeat reports from 3M, Coca-Cola, and General Motors continued to underscore the broadening of corporate strength beyond tech. 

As the market wrestles between earnings momentum and macro anxiety, the tone feels more like a pause than a pullback.

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Futures traded higher into the morning, with S&P contracts up 0.2 percent and Nasdaq futures fractionally positive. 

Yesterday’s weakness was driven largely by the tech complex, but early trading hinted at a rotation back toward cyclicals as oil prices rose and earnings continued to surprise to the upside.

The sanctions news dominated global sentiment. Washington and Brussels announced parallel measures targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, cutting off roughly half of Russia’s crude exports and banning Russian LNG imports to Europe. 

Oil surged more than 3 percent on the headlines, with Brent near $65 and WTI above $61. Energy stocks rallied premarket, while airlines and transport names traded lower on fuel concerns.

Asian markets were mixed. The Nikkei slipped as the Bank of Japan warned of early signs of overheating in domestic equities, noting hedge fund leverage in government bond markets as a potential risk factor. Chinese shares fell after reports that the U.S. is weighing export curbs on software technologies in response to Beijing’s rare earth restrictions. Europe opened modestly higher on the back of upbeat corporate results, even as the euro softened.

The coordinated energy sanctions mark one of the most consequential moments of Trump’s second term. By aligning with the EU, the administration has moved from selective pressure to a full-spectrum energy offensive against Moscow. 

Oil markets, still stabilizing after months of rangebound trading, responded sharply, signaling expectations of tighter global supply.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated that U.S. stakes in “strategic industries,” now including rare earths, semiconductors, and potentially quantum computing, reflect a new model of “aligned capitalism,” designed to ensure the public benefits from industries supported by federal investment. 

The Commerce Department confirmed it is in talks with IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave to take minority stakes in exchange for funding.

Across the Pacific, Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is finalizing a fiscal package expected to exceed $100 billion, while the BOJ’s semiannual report warned of froth in both equities and metropolitan real estate. The yen weakened toward 153 per dollar as investors awaited details of her stimulus plan.

The economic battlefield is shifting fast. China and India, Russia’s two largest crude customers, now face energy recalibration as sanctions take effect. Indian refiners are already moving to cut seaborne purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil, while Beijing may maintain limited pipeline flows. 

Analysts expect India to pivot toward Middle Eastern and U.S. crude, likely pushing global prices higher in the months ahead.

Europe, meanwhile, hailed Trump’s sanctions as a “signal of strength,” as Brussels formally adopted its 19th sanctions package, hitting Russian banks, crypto exchanges, and trade intermediaries. 

Together, the U.S. and EU measures represent the most unified Western front since 2022, a development that could reshape energy trade routes across Asia and the Atlantic.

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At home, the government shutdown has entered its twenty-third day and is now nearing a point of genuine economic strain. Federal workers missed paychecks this week, SNAP benefits face distribution risks, and permitting backlogs are mounting for companies awaiting approvals.

Economists warn of an erosion in consumer confidence if the impasse extends past mid-November.

Still, parts of the economy are holding up. The Mortgage Bankers Association projects home sales to rise modestly next year as supply improves and 30-year rates stabilize in the low sixes.

Transactions are set to rebound, particularly in markets with abundant new construction, though price growth is expected to flatten nationally. The association sees the housing market shifting from frozen to functional, slow progress, but progress nonetheless.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Existing Home Sales

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Asia: Nikkei -1.35%, Shanghai +0.22%
Europe: FTSE +0.56%, DAX -0.16%

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Markets are consolidating, not capitulating. Energy strength and policy coordination abroad are offsetting domestic political fatigue, while earnings breadth continues to anchor sentiment. 

The week’s defining moment remains ahead, tomorrow’s inflation print, but today’s tone is steadier. For all the noise, traders still believe the cycle bends toward growth, not retreat.