Wall Street extended its record-setting run Monday, capping a seventh straight advance for the S&P 500 and new all-time highs across the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000. 

The rally was once again powered by artificial-intelligence momentum, led by AMD’s 26% surge after announcing a long-term infrastructure pact with OpenAI. The deal, expected to generate tens of billions in revenue and include a 10% OpenAI equity stake, fueled another leg higher in semiconductors and AI-linked names.

Tech led all sectors, while defensive groups such as consumer staples, REITs, and healthcare lagged. 

Treasury yields held near 4.17% on the 10-year, little changed despite the continuing government shutdown. 

Gold hit a new record near $3,977 an ounce, up more than 50% year-to-date, as investors sought safety amid policy uncertainty. Bitcoin also reached fresh highs above $126,000 before paring gains. 

Oil rebounded modestly, with WTI settling at $61.69 and Brent at $65.47 after OPEC+’s smaller-than-expected production hike.

Despite a second week without official data, market tone stayed upbeat. The S&P 500 finished the third quarter up nearly 8%, the Nasdaq 11%, and small-caps 12%. 

Investors continue to treat the shutdown as a temporary disruption rather than a fundamental threat, keeping risk appetite intact.

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Futures are flat this morning as traders pause after the record streak. S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow contracts were mixed but mostly unchanged in early trade, pointing to a quiet open following the AI-driven surge. 

Investors are looking to a slate of Fed speakers for cues on policy direction, with no government data available to guide expectations.

Markets have fully priced a 25-basis-point cut at this month’s meeting and see another likely in December. With the shutdown delaying labor and inflation reports, commentary from Bowman, Bostic, Miran, and Kashkari will set the tone. 

Analysts note that the lack of fresh data effectively locks the Fed onto a dovish glide path.

The key question now is whether earnings season can validate current valuations. After a 31st record close for the S&P 500 this year, multiples have stretched to early-2000 levels, and sentiment measures are flashing complacency.

Still, the absence of new data and the persistence of AI-led inflows continue to anchor momentum heading into the week.

Central banks are once again navigating through politics as much as economics. In the U.S., the Fed’s challenge is decision-making without official labor or inflation data. 

Futures remain convinced of an October cut, while gold’s surge and a firm dollar show investors hedging both ways.

Abroad, Japan’s selection of Sanae Takaichi as the ruling party’s leader jolted currency markets, sending the yen to a two-month low near ¥150.70. Traders are scaling back expectations for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike as fiscal stimulus returns to center stage. 

In Europe, the euro remains under pressure after the resignation of France’s prime minister deepened that country’s political crisis and widened French-German yield spreads. 

ECB officials, including President Lagarde, hinted that a slower pace of balance-sheet tightening may be warranted if inflation undershoots.

Geopolitical tension remains high even as markets look past it. 

Indirect cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas open in Egypt today under the Trump peace framework, with negotiators working toward a hostage-for-prisoner exchange and the beginnings of Gaza’s post-war governance. 

The proposal’s disarmament clauses remain a sticking point, dividing Arab backers and fracturing Israel’s coalition.

At the same time, Israel’s isolation is deepening. Two years into the regional conflict, its military position is stronger but its diplomatic standing weaker. 

Growing Western fatigue and new recognitions of Palestinian statehood by major allies have reshaped the global balance. 

The U.S. remains supportive, but leverage is shifting, and Trump’s ability to steer negotiations has become one of his strongest foreign-policy tools.

Elsewhere, France’s government turmoil and Japan’s fiscal pivot are adding to global volatility, while Canada’s Mark Carney arrives in Washington today seeking tariff relief and deeper North American trade integration. 

Collectively, these crosscurrents highlight a world in which political cycles, not business cycles, are setting the rhythm for capital flows.

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The shutdown has entered its second week with little progress. The Senate again failed to pass either party’s funding measure Monday, extending furloughs and threatening to delay military paychecks due October 15, a potential breaking point both economically and politically. 

The White House has begun to float a compromise around healthcare subsidies, signaling that Trump may be open to limited talks with Democrats if the government reopens first.

Meanwhile, the administration is preparing to unveil a farm-aid package reportedly worth $10–14 billion to offset losses from China’s tariff retaliation. Details on funding remain unclear, with Treasury officials exploring ways to channel tariff revenue through the Commodity Credit Corporation. 

The move underscores how fiscal measures are increasingly supplanting legislative action as the preferred crisis response.

The broader risk remains erosion of economic momentum. Each week of closure is estimated to shave 0.1%–0.2% off quarterly GDP, though most activity historically rebounds once operations resume. 

For now, markets appear willing to ignore Washington’s paralysis — but with missed paychecks looming, pressure on both parties is rising.

No notable releases

McCormick (MKC)

Asia: Nikkei +0.01%, Shanghai +0.52%
Europe: FTSE +0.03%, DAX +0.15%

Markets opened the week still leaning bullish, a strange calm amid dysfunction. AI exuberance, easing expectations, and global liquidity continue to offset political noise from Washington to Paris to Tokyo. 

Gold’s surge and Bitcoin’s highs suggest investors are quietly hedging, but risk appetite remains alive. For now, momentum rules the day, until the Fed, or reality, reclaims the narrative.