The market walked into Tuesday with a rare combination of clarity and confusion.

Clarity because the tape is finally trading around a simple axis: peace headlines out of Eastern Europe and the near-certainty of a December rate cut.

Confusion because neither story is fully formed, both are being shaped in real time, and liquidity is thinning by the hour ahead of the holiday break.

Ukraine’s tentative assent to a U.S.-backed peace framework reframed the geopolitical risk premium almost instantly. Oil slid toward year lows. Gold climbed. Yields dipped to the edge of breaking beneath four percent. The market read the drift as calmer waters ahead.

At the same time, the PPI and retail sales prints arrived softer, steady, and mostly in line with what the doves wanted to see. With CPI and labor data wiped out by the shutdown, traders are treating every scrap of delayed information as a directional hint, and none of Tuesday’s releases gave the hawks anything new to stand on.

It wasn’t a roaring tape. It was a relieved one.

Health care, communications, and consumer discretionary took the baton while energy sagged under the weight of peace optimism. Alphabet extended its stretch of dominance. Nvidia and AMD bled further as investors rebalanced the AI ecosystem.

The core puzzle into Thanksgiving is whether this tentative peace premium and soft-data dovishness can survive the return of volume next week. The tape wants calm. But markets are always one headline away from being anything but.

For now, the path of least resistance is upward, but thin and fragile.

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Equities closed higher Tuesday, grinding through delayed data and geopolitics that carried more signal than noise.

The S&P 500 added nearly a full percent, the Dow tacked on more than 660 points, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.7 percent despite semiconductor weakness.

Breadth improved materially. Small caps outperformed large caps. The Russell 2000 gained almost a full percent as rate-cut odds surged back toward eighty percent.

Alphabet extended its leadership streak with another pre-market jump. The stock has notched thirteen all-time highs in November and is now up more than fifty percent over the past three months. Momentum around its TPU chips, paired with reports that Meta is in advanced talks to adopt Google hardware in 2027, reshaped the AI hierarchy again.

Nvidia lagged for a second straight session as investors stress-tested the idea that competition is finally real.

Broadcom caught early strength. HP fell sharply as it announced deep workforce cuts tied to its AI investment cycle. Dell surged on raised guidance and outsized AI server demand.

Retailers offered another pocket of energy. Urban Outfitters ripped seventeen percent on strong earnings. Kohl’s continued its recovery after a shock profit.

Health care quietly led again, logging fresh highs and becoming one of the market’s more durable refuges into year-end.

Bond markets responded exactly as the Fed doves hoped: the ten-year yield touched 4.00 percent and briefly looked set to break below it entirely. Gold climbed above $4,160. The dollar drifted to one-week lows as rate-cut expectations firmed up across the curve.

Overseas, Asia traded mixed, Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.9 percent while China lagged. Europe leaned higher ahead of the U.K. budget, which is expected to introduce a slate of tax hikes for higher earners.

Heading into Wednesday’s session, futures are green, Alphabet is higher again, Nvidia is weaker again, and traders are preparing for durable goods and jobless claims to round out the last data the Fed will see before the December meeting.

It’s still a psychology market. But for the moment, the psychology is stabilizing.

The Fed remains split, and the data blackout is making every voice louder.

Governor Christopher Waller continues to argue that inflation is cooling quickly enough to warrant “insurance easing.” Mary Daly echoes the concern about labor softening faster than inflation cooling.

New York’s John Williams has quietly built the intellectual scaffolding for a near-term cut, telling markets last week that policy can adjust without risking the inflation glide path.

But the resistance is real.

Boston’s Susan Collins, Kansas City’s Jeffrey Schmid, and St. Louis’s Alberto Musalem remain uncomfortable cutting again without CPI or jobs data. October minutes showed deeper unease about sticky services inflation.

Tuesday’s data didn’t move anyone off their positions.

Headline PPI came in at 0.3 percent. Core PPI cooled to 0.1 percent. Retail sales slowed to 0.2 percent. Nothing alarming. Nothing decisive.

Wednesday’s Beige Book carries more weight than usual, with no CPI or labor reports, anecdote becomes evidence.

Abroad, the Bank of Japan is unexpectedly back in play.

A coordinated shift in BOJ signaling, and political cover from Prime Minister Takaichi, has set up the possibility of a December rate hike. The yen strengthened on the news. Short-term JGB yields hit their highest level since 2008. The BOJ has not wanted to surprise markets since the Kuroda era. They are clearly preparing them.

Australia’s central bank struck its own cautious tone, noting that global financial conditions, not the cash rate alone, are now driving domestic tightening. Officials warned the neutral rate has likely risen, a global echo we’re hearing across G7 desks.

The geopolitical map tightened again on Tuesday.

The Ukraine–Russia peace framework, which began as a deeply controversial 28-point plan, has now been trimmed to nineteen points and gained tentative Ukrainian support.

Kyiv’s delegation acknowledged on Tuesday that it is prepared to advance the U.S.-backed structure, though several sticking points remain.

Moscow’s response is deliberately slow.

Putin aide Yuri Ushakov said the Kremlin has not yet received the official draft and warned several points “require serious analysis.” Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov welcomed the effort but ruled out concessions on “key issues.”

The next critical moment arrives next week when U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff travels to Moscow to present the revised text directly. For markets, the bigger question is whether a peace framework is real enough to influence oil, commodities, and European risk premia. Tuesday’s reaction suggests investors are beginning to price the possibility.

Meanwhile, Venezuela’s Maduro faces stepped-up U.S. pressure. With no viable exile options, analysts say Maduro is likely to dig in rather than negotiate.

And in Washington’s other trade front, tariffs continue to drift lower. Food and consumer-goods levies were eased earlier this month, and the effective tariff rate has fallen to roughly 16.8 percent from April’s peak of 28 percent. The Supreme Court’s looming decision on the legality of IEEPA tariffs could trigger another step down in December.

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The domestic political climate tightened another notch.

The FBI sought interviews with Senators Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin, along with four House Democrats, over a video advising military members to refuse unlawful orders.

Trump labeled the lawmakers “traitors,” sparking concerns about political weaponization of law enforcement. Legal scholars described the probe as frivolous and designed to suppress congressional oversight.

At the same time, the Pentagon said Kelly could be recalled to active duty and face a court-martial, an extraordinary escalation that drew bipartisan criticism, including from Senator Lisa Murkowski.

Elsewhere in the federal apparatus, the CDC installed Louisiana surgeon general Ralph Abraham, a vocal vaccine skeptic, as its second-in-command. The agency has been in turmoil since Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. began reshaping leadership earlier this year, including changes to official vaccine guidance.

Across committees, Senate Republicans are preparing a January hearing to challenge federal safety mandates such as automatic braking and rear-seat alerts, arguing they inflate vehicle prices and do little to improve safety.

With inflation the dominant voter concern into 2026, affordability is increasingly becoming Congress’s organizing principle.

Durable Goods
Initial Jobless Claims
Chicago PMI

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Asia: Nikkei +1.85%, Shanghai -0.15%
Europe: FTSE 100 +0.35%, DAX +0.35%

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The tape heads into the final session before Thanksgiving with a tone that is firm but fragile.

Peace talks have introduced the possibility of a geopolitical tailwind.
Soft, steady data has helped the rate-cut narrative lock in.
Tech leadership is splintering but not breaking.
Small caps have fresh oxygen for the first time this month.

Today, watch three things:

Whether the peace framework gains enough traction to further pressure oil and reshape energy leadership.

Whether the Beige Book reveals cracks in employment that validate the dovish Fed faction.

Whether thin liquidity amplifies any surprise in durable goods or jobless claims into outsized price action.

This market wants calm.
Whether it can keep it is what today will test.