This is a risk held market.
Not fear.
Not enthusiasm.

Equities are sitting near record highs, but the tone is controlled rather than celebratory. 

Futures are softer to start the week, big technology is leading modest premarket weakness, and participation remains narrow. That is not rejection. It is restraint.

The more revealing signals are coming from outside equities.

Precious metals are pulling back after parabolic year end runs. 

Oil is bid on geopolitics rather than growth. 

Copper continues to push toward record levels on tariff risk and structural demand. 

Meanwhile, China has escalated military activity around Taiwan in direct response to U.S. arms sales, shifting geopolitical risk from background noise to perimeter pressure.

Bottom line. Risk is still on.

But it is being managed, not extended.
And that posture is typical as liquidity thins and investors defend gains into year end.

The recent crash wasn’t just a selloff. It was a stress test. Weak projects cracked. Overleveraged traders got wiped out. Fear ruled the market.

But one crypto did the opposite.

While prices across the market collapsed, this coin’s on-chain activity actually surged—more users, more transactions, more real demand. That kind of divergence doesn’t happen by accident. It’s a signal of strength the market hasn’t fully priced in yet.

We’ve seen this setup before. And it led to gains of 8,600%, 3,500%, and 1,743%.

Now the selling pressure is fading—and the next leg higher could come fast.

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© 2025 Boardwalk Flock LLC. All Rights Reserved. 2382 Camino Vida Roble, Suite I Carlsbad, CA 92011, United States. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Readers acknowledge that the authors are not engaging in the rendering of legal, financial, medical, or professional advice. The reader agrees that under no circumstances Boardwalk Flock, LLC is responsible for any losses, direct or indirect, which are incurred as a result of the use of the information contained within this, including, but not limited to, errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. Results may not be typical and may vary from person to person. Making money trading digital currencies takes time and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk.

China’s military drills around Taiwan were explicitly framed as blockade and control exercises, directly tied to recent U.S. arms sales and sanctions on American defense firms. 

Japan has been pulled further into the narrative through record defense spending and direct rhetoric around a Taiwan contingency. 

Russia has openly signaled alignment with Beijing.

Markets are not reacting with volatility spikes, which matters. 

This is not being priced as an imminent shock. It is being priced as an elevated background risk that quietly supports energy, defense exposure, and insurance assets.

This is how geopolitical risk usually enters markets when investors are already fully invested. Not through liquidation, but through where capital chooses to feel safe operating.

Gold and silver are pulling back after historic gains, not because the thesis has broken, but because positioning became crowded. 

The late year surge, particularly in silver, turned near vertical. Some consolidation was inevitable.

Copper tells a different story. Prices in London are pushing toward record highs, driven by fears of future tariffs and sustained demand tied to electrification and infrastructure. 

That is not a hedge trade. It is a structural signal.

Oil is firm as well, supported by stalled Ukraine peace talks, rising U.S. Venezuela tensions, and broader enforcement risk across energy supply chains. 

This is not growth driven demand. It is friction driven pricing.

Across commodities, the message is not inflation panic. It is selective conviction.

U.S. index futures are modestly lower, led by weakness in mega cap technology names. 

The S&P 500 and Dow remain near record highs after a strong 2025, but leadership is narrow and urgency is absent.

This is classic late December behavior. Capital is defending exposure rather than seeking new terrain. 

Small caps continue to lag. Volume is light. Direction is intact, but enthusiasm is rationed.

The Santa Claus window is still open. But it is fragile.

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Futures point to a softer open, with Nasdaq contracts underperforming and the Dow near flat. 

Equity leadership remains concentrated in large, liquid names. There is no sign of broad risk reduction, but there is little appetite for expansion.

Rates are quietly supportive. The 10 year Treasury yield has drifted lower toward the 4.1 area, reflecting easing expectations and spillover from global policy uncertainty rather than renewed domestic growth concern.

FX markets remain orderly. The dollar is soft against select majors as traders price a 2026 easing cycle while watching the Federal Reserve leadership transition.

Crypto mirrors the broader risk complex. Bitcoin is pushing toward the 90,000 level but struggling to reclaim it decisively. 

That hesitation reinforces the same theme seen across markets. Participation without urgency.

Commodities remain the clearest expression of conviction. Copper strength stands out. Oil remains bid. Precious metals are consolidating after extraordinary runs.

Across asset classes, the signal is consistent.

Risk is on.
Follow through is limited.
Protection remains in demand.

The coming Federal Reserve minutes are the only major scheduled macro catalyst this week, but markets are already looking past near term data. 

Attention has shifted to governance rather than rate math.

The open contest to replace the Fed Chair has moved from quiet speculation into public positioning. 

Markets are not yet pricing a loss of independence, but they are increasingly sensitive to how decisions will be made, not just where rates will land.

That sensitivity shows up in the curve. Short term rates reflect expected cuts. Longer term yields are not collapsing. Investors are comfortable with easing, but they are cautious about credibility.

Globally, policy paths continue to diverge. Japan is tightening into a world still pricing future easing. Europe remains cautious and fragmented. Synchronization has broken down.

Markets can function in that environment.
But they price it.

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Michael Burry’s renewed bet against Nvidia and Palantir has captured attention, but the trade itself is less important than what it represents.

This is not a broad rejection of artificial intelligence. It is an expression of discomfort with concentration, valuation, and infrastructure assumptions at the margin. 

Even Burry’s own framing is not about AI failing, but about the market detaching from reality around timing and scale.

That distinction matters.

Markets can remain long AI while simultaneously buying protection elsewhere. In fact, that is exactly what they appear to be doing. Equity exposure is being held. Commodities and hedges are being layered in. Capital is staying invested, but it is paying for insurance.

That is not bearish behavior.
It is late cycle discipline.

Skepticism does not end trends.
It changes how they are owned.

Data: Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
Earnings: No notable reports
Overnight: Nikkei -0.44%, Shanghai +0.04%, FTSE 100 +0.05%, DAX -0.01%

This is not a market breaking higher on belief.
It is a market staying invested while pricing uncertainty.

Leadership is narrow.
Liquidity is thinning.
Protection remains in demand.

Geopolitics is rising quietly.
Policy credibility matters again.
And conviction is being expressed selectively rather than broadly.

The rally is intact.
But it is being managed.