Equity markets extended their record-setting streak Monday as optimism around trade, technology, and central banks converged into another broad rally. 

Investors shrugged off looming layoffs at Amazon and Target, with sentiment instead buoyed by easing U.S.–China trade tensions and expectations of another 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Market breadth was strong and volatility continued to collapse, with the VIX dropping to 15.8, its lowest level since early September. 

The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each ended the session at record highs as all seven of the “Magnificent 7” tech names advanced more than 1%, led by Tesla, Nvidia, and Alphabet.

Gold prices fell 2.9% to just above $4,000 an ounce as investors rotated out of safe havens, while oil drifted modestly lower after last week’s sharp sanctions-driven rally. 

Treasury yields edged down, with the 10-year at 3.99%. The dollar softened against major peers as global risk appetite stayed firm.

Traders are now squarely focused on this week’s twin catalysts: the Fed’s policy decision Wednesday and Thursday’s long-anticipated meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, where both sides are expected to confirm a framework for a trade détente.

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The market mood remains constructive heading into a dense calendar of earnings and policy events. 

Investors are preparing for results from the “Magnificent 7,” Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft on Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple Thursday, which will test the durability of the AI-driven rally that has defined much of the year.

More than one-third of the S&P 500 will report this week, with 84% of companies so far beating expectations by an average of 7.8%. Analysts forecast broad earnings growth across eight of eleven sectors, led by technology, financials, and materials. 

Strong results from UPS Tuesday morning, which reported a sharp rebound in profit and revenue, reinforced the consumer-discretionary bellwether’s comeback narrative and sent its stock surging 14% pre-market.

Deal activity is also accelerating. September M&A volumes rose 11% month-over-month and spending jumped 42%, signaling renewed boardroom confidence. Yet history offers caution: large acquirers like Salesforce and Union Pacific have recently underperformed peers post-announcement, underscoring the thin line between strategic ambition and overreach when credit is cheap.

The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting begins today, with markets fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut to the 3.75%–4.00% range. 

The focus will be on guidance: how Chair Jerome Powell frames the path forward amid incomplete data from the ongoing government shutdown and signs of tightening liquidity in overnight markets.

Beyond rates, investors expect the Fed to formally end its balance-sheet runoff program, with several economists now predicting a pivot back toward modest Treasury purchases early next year to stabilize funding conditions. 

The Fed’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet remains central to the debate, shrink too far, and 2019’s money-market turmoil could repeat.

Globally, it’s a rare week of synchronization. The Bank of Canada also meets Wednesday and is expected to cut rates again, while the ECB and Bank of Japan are seen holding steady. 

With divergent inflation dynamics across regions, policy coordination remains unlikely, but collectively the meetings will shape how liquidity and currencies adjust into year-end.

President Trump’s Asia tour has become a focal point for markets seeking confirmation that geopolitics can align with economic optimism. 

After trade framework agreements with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam, Trump landed in Tokyo to meet Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first female leader, to sign a $400 billion rare-earths and AI investment deal.

The two also reaffirmed Japan’s $550 billion U.S. investment package agreed earlier this year, as Trump lauded Takaichi’s defense-spending pledge and “Sanae-nomics” agenda. 

The deals signal Japan’s intent to diversify away from Chinese supply chains and deepen industrial ties with the U.S. before Thursday’s Trump-Xi summit in South Korea, where a potential trade truce remains the headline event.

Meanwhile, in the Western Hemisphere, the Pentagon’s expanding naval deployment near Venezuela continues to draw scrutiny. Analysts see Washington’s “gunboat diplomacy” as both pressure on Nicolás Maduro’s regime and a signal of shifting U.S. priorities in the region, even as the administration insists its focus remains counternarcotics.

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The House Oversight Committee’s new 91-page report on President Biden’s final-year executive actions has added fresh political fuel to Washington. The Republican-led panel urged the Justice Department to investigate whether Biden’s aides used an autopen to sign pardons and commutations without direct authorization.

At the same time, the largest union representing federal workers called on Democrats to end the ongoing government shutdown by voting for the Republican-proposed stopgap funding bill.

Everett Kelley, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, urged Congress to “put every single federal worker back on the job with full back pay today,” saying nearly 900,000 federal employees have now missed two paychecks. 

This shutdown is now the second longest in U.S. history. Senate Democrats have resisted passing the short-term funding bill unless it includes an extension of Affordable Care Act tax credits, while Republicans insist that issue should be handled separately. 

The funding impasse remains stuck in procedural gridlock. Union pressure is intensifying as federal workers line up at food banks and critical services begin to stall, increasing political urgency for both parties to find a compromise.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

V               UNH
NEE          BKNG
SCCO       AMT
RCL          SHW
MDLZ       ECL
GLW         UPS
PYPL        REGN
EA            CARR
DHI           MSCI
SYY          OKE
IQV           XYL

Asia: Nikkei -0.58%, Shanghai -0.22%
Europe: FTSE +0.03%, DAX -0.09%

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The resilience trade is holding firm. Markets are climbing not on euphoria but on the quiet conviction that global growth can persist under lower rates and fewer shocks. With central banks poised to ease, corporate earnings proving sturdy, and trade diplomacy thawing, investors are seeing coordination, not conflict, on the horizon.

The week ahead will test that balance, but for now, the world’s biggest economies are finally moving in the same direction: toward stability, however fragile, and growth that still has room to run.