Markets steadied on Tuesday, clawing back some of Monday’s tech-and-crypto–led selloff.

The S&P 500 closed +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.6%, and the Dow +0.3%, helped by a sharp rebound in bitcoin and renewed strength in AI-linked names.

Bitcoin surged ~7%, reclaiming $90K+, which pulled crypto-adjacent equities off the mat: Coinbase, Robinhood, and Strategy all bounced after heavy drawdowns yesterday.

Tech reclaimed leadership. 

Nvidia added 1%, Credo Technology ripped 12% to fresh highs on standout earnings, and Apple notched another 52-week high. 

Across the S&P, nine names hit new highs, including Applied Materials, Intel, Prologis, and Synchrony.

Industrials joined the rebound.

Boeing jumped ~10%, its best session since April, after guiding to higher 2026 deliveries.

EV-adjacent plays followed, with Beta Technologies +9% on a long-term supply deal with Eve Air Mobility.

Rates markets were quieter. 

The 10-year held near 4.09%, as investors continued pricing in an 87–89% probability of a Fed cut on Dec. 10, now the week’s dominant macro anchor.

Commodities were mixed: oil held its modest rebound, copper remained supported by U.S. production headlines, and gold stayed range-bound.

On the data front, the calendar was light, but tariff-sensitive sectors continued to warn about labor cuts into 2026.

Tomorrow brings Marvell, CrowdStrike, and Okta earnings, with positioning already shifting ahead of ADP on Wednesday, jobless claims Thursday, and the delayed PCE on Friday.

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The bond market is quietly absorbing its next structural headwind: the AI build-out.

BlackRock’s shift underweight long Treasuries lands with weight because it frames AI not as a tech story, but as a financing story.  

One that lifts issuance, fattens term premiums, and makes “lower for longer” an outdated instinct. 

When the world’s largest asset manager says the long end needs a higher clearing yield, duration allocators listen.

Meanwhile, the consumer refuses to blink. 

Cyber Week’s $44B haul shows households are still price-sensitive but far from retrenching. 

Strong demand supports risk assets and Q4 earnings, but it also keeps the disinflation path bumpy… exactly the kind of backdrop that keeps the Fed patient even with December’s cut nearly priced in.

Yields barely moved.

The 10-year hovering near 4.08%, front-end odds implying an 89% chance of easing next week. 

But the stability masks the growing tension between a softening manufacturing cycle (ISM slipped again) and a still-resilient service economy fueled by spending.

The next catalysts are straightforward.

ADP, claims, and the long-delayed PCE print. 

Together they’ll determine whether the Fed can cut beyond December, or whether strong demand and rising capex force markets to accept that the cost of capital isn’t done recalibrating.

Washington opened the week by testing federal muscle across agencies, and the through-line is simple. 

The administration is pressing its leverage harder, and everyone — states, courts, corporates — is recalculating risk.

The sharpest move came from USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, who threatened to cut SNAP administrative funding to blue states refusing to hand over program data. 

It’s a technical dispute with political voltage, but the market read is clearer: federal–state conflict over entitlement oversight often bleeds into budget timelines. 

If this escalates, it adds another variable to an already-fragile appropriations picture heading into year-end, where shutdown fatigue has already increased policy-volatility premia.

That tension carried straight into Trump’s Cabinet meeting, where the administration faced growing bipartisan scrutiny over the “double-tap” boat strike. 

Defense isn’t exactly a slow-beta sector, and expanded oversight, even if symbolic, can slow procurement and complicate timelines for contractors who rely on predictable authorizations.

One quip floated privately on the Street: nothing breaks a rally faster than Congress discovering the process.

And while all this unfolds, DOJ is reshaping the immigration bench by removing over 100 judges since January. 

Operationally, that bottlenecks an already strained system. Economically, slower adjudications mean slower labor-force regularization, which feeds back into wage tightness narratives heading into 2026.

Federal power is moving more assertively, and markets are recalibrating where those frictions become economic.

Power politics is back on the tape, and this round carries real market implications.

Washington’s renewed push to force an endgame in Ukraine has Europe bracing for a settlement shaped less by security principles and more by great-power arithmetic. 

Brussels fears the “ugly deal” scenario.

For markets, that’s future deficits, higher EU issuance, and a stickier geopolitical risk premium.

Moscow’s timing is calculated. 

As U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff arrives, the Kremlin is amplifying claims of capturing Pokrovsk, the kind of battlefield narrative designed to raise Moscow’s leverage before talks. 

Even if the reality is murkier, investors read it as a reminder that any negotiated pause may not reduce volatility; it may only shift it from the front line to the policy front.

In Asia, India’s fight with Apple over a mandated state-run cyber-tracking app is triggering a separate kind of friction. 

Apple’s refusal to preload it sets up a standoff that could shape market access, compliance costs, and the broader playbook for how multinational tech navigates increasingly interventionist governments.

Sovereigns are asserting control, and markets are being reminded that politics can still move prices long before policy formally changes.

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The market broke the two-day skid, but not the pattern. Tuesday was less about conviction and more about undoing the worst of Monday’s unwind. 

Crypto snapped back, AI found its footing, and dip buyers finally stepped into the industrials. It was a stabilizer, not a signal.

The tone into tomorrow hinges on two elements. 

First, whether bitcoin’s rebound has real follow-through or simply resets positioning before the next volatility round. 

Second, how traders reposition ahead of ADP, jobless claims, and Friday’s long-delayed PCE, the data trio that will decide whether the Fed’s near-90 percent cut odds hold or start to slip.

The tape wants a December rally. It just needs validation. Between now and the December 10 meeting, every print carries more weight than the move it produces.