Markets are starting the week digesting the weakest jobs report in years. The U.S. added only 22,000 jobs in August, revisions to June went negative, and unemployment ticked up to 4.3%. That was enough for bond markets to fully price in a September rate cut and push expectations toward sub-3% fed funds by the end of 2026. Stocks opened strong on Friday but faded as growth concerns took over. Treasury yields sank, the dollar softened, and gold hit yet another record high.

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Futures are pointing to a higher open, with the market all but certain rates will be cut this month on the heels of a less than stellar jobs report for August. Key inflation data released on Wednesday and Thursday this week could also open the door for a 50 bps cut rather than just 25 bps, assuming PPI and CPI indicate muted inflation figures. 

The small-cap space continues to get attention. Hedge funds that leaned into the IWM/SMID complex earlier this summer are sitting on large gains, and the case for rotation remains tied to falling yields, tariff exposure, and the idea that market breadth could improve. That’s an important hedge against Mag 7 concentration, especially with AI sentiment starting to wobble. Oil is resilient in the face of another OPEC+ production hike, set to open 2% higher this morning as the increase is not as substantial as originally feared by traders.

The global backdrop is not short of drama. China’s exports for August missed expectations, another sign that growth momentum is slipping despite yuan support and modest stock gains. At the same time, Beijing is tightening its embrace with Moscow and Pyongyang. Over the weekend, Xi, Putin, and Kim projected unity in Beijing, but even official accounts hinted at underlying differences. That’s hardly reassuring for markets already wary of rising East-West blocs.

Meanwhile, India has emerged as the fulcrum of U.S. tariff battles. Reports suggest that black-market oil flows are undermining Washington’s tariff leverage, even as the White House presses New Delhi for concessions. In Japan, political uncertainty after Ishiba’s departure has rattled the yen and raised new questions about the country’s leadership trajectory. Europe isn’t standing still either, with the ECB weighing fresh sanctions on Russian banks and oil trade.

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The domestic front is dominated by fallout from tariffs and fresh scrutiny on corporate practices. Treasury Secretary Bessent admitted that if the Supreme Court overturns Trump’s tariff push, the government may owe huge refunds to companies that have already paid them. The White House continues to defend the legality of its actions, but the courtroom fight adds another layer of uncertainty to already complex trade policy.

Meanwhile, Hyundai’s Georgia plant was the focus of headlines after a federal raid detained immigrant workers, rattling one of the country’s fastest-growing manufacturing hubs. South Korean officials are pushing for those workers to return without deportation, highlighting how immigration, labor, and industrial policy remain entangled. On the policy side, the Senate is preparing debate on a new crypto and tokenization bill, another sign that the regulatory state is struggling to keep pace with financial innovation.

September has a well-earned reputation as a difficult month for investors. Add in a deteriorating jobs market, looming inflation data, and unresolved tariff fights, and the stage is set for more volatility. But there are offsets. Rate cuts are now fully priced, small-caps and rate-sensitive sectors are showing life, and consumer spending continues to surprise on the upside. With the Fed poised to ease, the question becomes not whether conditions worsen but how quickly the policy shift can stabilize markets.