From the T&Q Desk

Good morning. Markets tumbled Wednesday as hawkish Fed messaging collided with deepening U.S.-China trade tensions. Tech stocks led the decline after the White House imposed new export restrictions on AI chips, forcing Nvidia to warn of a $5.5 billion charge and sending the Nasdaq down more than 3%. Fed Chair Powell didn’t offer much support either, warning that tariffs are larger than expected and suggesting the Fed will stay on hold until there’s more clarity on inflation.

Meanwhile, China responded by halting Boeing aircraft orders and launching countermeasures targeting U.S. services. The dollar resumed its decline, Treasury yields slipped, and gold surged to a fresh record as investors flocked to safe havens. With just one trading day left before the Good Friday holiday, attention now turns to a wave of earnings and economic data.

Featured Headlines

IRS to Review Harvard's Tax Status
The Trump administration has asked the IRS to begin the process of revoking Harvard University’s tax-exempt status, arguing the university engages in political activity inconsistent with its nonprofit charter.
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U.S. Bars AI Chip Exports to China, Nvidia Warns of $5.5B Hit
Nvidia and AMD face new U.S. licensing rules for selling AI chips to China. The export restrictions could dent revenue significantly and triggered a broad semiconductor selloff.
Read full article →

China Targets U.S. Services After Tariff Hikes
In response to recent U.S. moves, China has widened its focus to U.S. services, calling recent tariff hikes on goods “meaningless” and promising further retaliation.
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Powell Warns on Tariffs, Reaffirms Fed Patience
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs are weighing on growth and could drive inflation higher. He signaled no immediate rate cuts, favoring a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty.
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Trump Signals Progress on Japan Tariff Deal
President Trump announced “big progress” after recent talks with Japan over a potential trade deal, offering a potential diplomatic counterweight to China tensions.
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WTO Slashes Global Trade Forecast Amid U.S.-China Standoff
The World Trade Organization cut its 2025 global goods trade forecast to a -0.2% decline, citing mounting tariffs and spillover effects as key headwinds.
Read full article →

Previous Trading Day Recap

U.S. equity markets closed sharply lower on Wednesday as risk sentiment deteriorated across the board. The S&P 500 dropped 2.2%, while the Nasdaq plunged 3.1% amid chip stock weakness and Powell’s cautious tone. Nvidia and AMD both warned of export-related losses due to new U.S. chip licensing rules for China-bound AI hardware. The broader semiconductor sector slumped, dragging down the SOX index by as much as 7% intraday.

Economic data was mixed: retail sales rose 1.4% in March, slightly ahead of expectations, while industrial production declined 0.3%, in line with forecasts. Treasury yields eased with the 10-year falling to 4.28%, while gold prices soared more than 3% to an all-time closing high of $3,346.40.

Economic Calendar – April 17, 2025

  • Housing Starts

  • Initial Jobless Claims

  • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Earnings Calendar – April 17, 2025

  • UnitedHealth (UNH)

  • Netflix (NFLX)

  • American Express (AXP)

  • Blackstone (BX)

  • Charles Schwab (SCHW)

  • Truist (TFC)

  • D.R. Horton (DHI)

  • Nucor (NUE)

  • Marsh & McLennan (MMC)

Overnight Markets

  • Asia: Nikkei +1.35%, Shanghai +0.13%

  • Europe (as of 6:30 AM ET): FTSE -0.75%, DAX -0.54%

US Pre-Market (As of 6:30 AM ET, April 16, 2025)

Final Thoughts

Markets are struggling to find footing as the twin threats of Fed inaction and trade escalation weigh on sentiment. With earnings season underway and the Fed maintaining a holding pattern, investors may need to brace for more turbulence. Gold's surge and Treasury strength signal rising defensive positioning—but if headline risks ease, there may be room for a rebound.

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