Stocks climbed again Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new records while the Dow lagged. Investors favored growth areas like tech and consumer names, while defensive groups fell back. 

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Futures are pointing to a strong open as traders took the Stephen Miran appointment to the Federal Reserve as an indication of increasingly dovish policy. A 25 bp cut is locked in, but the outlook for future cuts matters most. Today’s retail sales print is the last key input. 

Markets are also watching the huge pile of cash in money-market funds, now at a record $7.3 trillion. That money may only move back into stocks once the Fed cuts deeper and yields drop further. Until then, it acts as both a cushion and a cap.

China news adds a layer of risk. Officials opened an antitrust probe into Nvidia and flagged new checks on U.S. chip imports, a move seen as leverage in trade talks. With Madrid negotiations under way and TikTok still unresolved, semis stay headline-sensitive while broader risk tone hinges on Powell tomorrow.

Israel began a ground push into Gaza City after days of bombardment, calling it Hamas’s last stronghold. Humanitarian risk is rising, but markets so far treat the conflict as contained. Oil and gold remain the key pressure points if the fight widens.

Talks between Washington and Beijing showed mixed signals. Officials hinted at progress on TikTok, but China pushed back on tariffs and moved ahead with new chip actions. A narrow deal is possible, but the bigger rivalry is not going away. Expect more headline swings.

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Fed politics stayed in focus. A federal court blocked the White House from removing Governor Lisa Cook before today’s meeting, keeping her vote in play. At the same time, Stephen Miran was confirmed late Monday, adding a new seat to the table. These shifts put extra weight on the Fed forecast and Powell’s message. How markets read the Fed’s independence will matter almost as much as the cut itself.

Markets face a clear fork. A 25 bp cut with softer guidance on jobs and growth would likely extend the rally and push yields lower. A cut paired with hawkish dots could stall momentum. Key watchpoints: today’s retail sales, record cash in money-market funds, and the tone from Madrid trade talks.