T&Q Morning Briefing

Good morning Traders and Quants! Welcome to the big day! Markets took a pause Tuesday after a week of near-daily record highs. This wasn’t panic—just digestion as investors await a dense 48 hours of catalysts: the FOMC decision, Big Tech earnings, and a wave of jobs and growth data.

The market’s attention now turns to what could be a pivotal stretch for risk assets: Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft report in the next 48 hours, the Fed will shape September rate cut expectations, and trade deadlines loom.

Celestica (CLS) popped 16.5% on Tuesday. If you aren’t watching the T&Q Index, you’re missing moves like this. It’s up 23% and showing no signs of slowing down.

Earnings and tariffs are still in the driver’s seat. Tech leaned on semis (CLS, SANM, CDNS) to stay green, but healthcare and transports dragged after weaker guidance from MRK, NVO, UNH, and UPS. Defensive sectors—utilities and REITs—caught a bid as yields fell. The 10-year dropped 9bps to 4.34% after a blowout 7-year Treasury auction.

The dollar pushed to one-month highs on the back of the US-EU trade deal and a stronger greenback versus the euro. Oil ripped nearly 4% after Trump warned Russia to agree to a Ukraine truce within 10 days or face fresh sanctions.

This week’s catalysts are all still ahead: FOMC tomorrow (no cut expected), Bank of Canada tomorrow, Bank of Japan Thursday, and the heavyweights of Big Tech earnings—Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—reporting in the next 48 hours.

The EU deal may be signed, but the tariff chessboard is still in play.

Trump says India is likely to face a 20%–25% tariff, though talks aren’t finalized. Canada negotiations remain tense, with Trump floating unilateral tariffs if no deal emerges. Both sides are working toward exemptions for autos, steel, aluminum, and copper, but time is short.

China talks are ongoing in Stockholm, with Bessent hinting at a possible 90-day extension to the August 1 deadline. The U.S. is pushing for large Chinese purchases of American goods. Southeast Asia is also recalibrating—Cambodia and Thailand talks have restarted as both face looming tariff cliffs.

Meanwhile, a 50% tariff on copper imports is set to begin Friday, and markets are already adjusting. Copper traders are watching whether exemptions or waivers emerge from Canada or Latin America, but for now, metals are trading with a geopolitical risk premium.

The Fed is front and center this week, but the politics around it are just as important as the policy.

Powell heads into today’s FOMC meeting under steady pressure from Trump for cuts. Futures markets still price two 25bp cuts this year, but there’s no expectation for movement in July. The question is whether Powell signals a September move or sticks with data dependence.

Treasury Secretary Bessent continues to play a high-profile role—balancing debt management, tariff diplomacy, and a more market-sensitive approach to auction scheduling. Trump, meanwhile, is pairing trade wins with a push on the tax front, signaling new charitable deduction rules as part of his broader tax and spending bill.

Economic Data

Earnings Reports

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The next three days could define August. Fed language, mega-cap earnings, and any trade headlines will determine if the rally broadens beyond Big Tech or stays concentrated.