Good morning Traders and Investors! 

Good morning Traders, Investors, & Quants! 

We Made It to Friday…But the Real Action Is Just Getting Started

Wednesday was quiet on the surface… but don’t mistake stillness for inactivity.

The Fed held rates steady, yet quietly shifted its long-term tone.

Inflation projections ticked higher.

Growth forecasts slipped.

And while Powell struck a calm pose, the underlying message was clear:

Caution is back in play.

Markets shrugged for now. But under the surface, the story is shifting.

Jobless claims came in slightly better…

Housing starts plunged nearly 10%…

And today, we face a $5.5 trillion triple witching expiration — one of the biggest volatility catalysts of the year.

Add rising tensions in the Middle East, and you’ve got a market ripe for sudden dislocation.

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Triple Threat Friday: $5.5T at Stake, Global Tensions Rise, and the AI Arms Race Heats Up

Wall Street isn’t just watching… it’s bracing.

$5.5 trillion in options are set to expire this Friday in what may be one of the most volatile sessions in years.

But that’s only one storm.

Trump’s veiled threats of military action against Iran are back in the headlines.

Powell’s latest comments? Less dovish than bulls hoped, with only one rate cut on the Fed’s 2025 map.

Geopolitical heat. Fed confusion. Mass options expiry.

Some traders are calling this “The Perfect Setup.”

Will it trigger the next leg up or a breakdown no one’s priced in?

Meanwhile…

Mark Zuckerberg quietly tried to acquire Safe Superintelligence, a startup so radical that its founders won’t let investors near it.

Why?

Because its mission is “too powerful to be owned.”

Though the deal didn’t happen, Zuckerberg greenlit a massive AI hiring spree, signaling an arms race between Meta, Google, and OpenAI.

What’s behind the AI talent war and how are traders front-running the next wave?

Home Depot just bid $5 billion to acquire SRS Distribution — and the Street is buzzing.

This isn’t just a big deal. It may be the spark of an M&A wave in construction, industrials, and homebuilding as optimism returns.

What does this say about the real estate cycle and who’s next to get bought out?

Tensions between Israel and Iran are escalating fast.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is consolidating power. Israel’s precision strikes continue. And behind the scenes, the U.S. may be preparing its own play.

Yet markets… are calm?

Trump’s immigration crackdown is triggering courtroom drama, food supply fears, and construction labor shortages,  just as homebuilding accelerates.

Many think this can be the economic wildcard no one’s modeling yet?

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Stocks closed slightly red on Wednesday… but don’t let the calm finish fool you.

The Fed held rates steady  but signaled less easing than expected for 2026 and beyond.

May housing starts plunged nearly 10%, with multifamily construction falling off a cliff.

Powell tried to strike a balance hinting at optimism, but quietly conceding that tariffs are pushing inflation back up.

Translation? The “pause” might last longer than bulls are betting on.

Utilities and tech led the way, while energy and comms took a hit.

Treasury yields slipped. Bitcoin pulled back. The dollar firmed.

And traders? They’re positioning ahead of Friday’s $5.5 trillion triple witching, a setup that could trigger serious cross-asset volatility.

The Fed isn’t slamming the brakes — but it’s not hitting the gas either.

Rate cuts are still on the table… just not anytime soon.

With inflation proving stickier than expected, geopolitical risk heating up, and $5.5 trillion in options expiring this Friday, this market is anything but predictable.

It’s not about panic…it’s about positioning.

And right now, smart investors are quietly adjusting.

Next week could set the tone for Q3.

We’re watching:

Consumer confidence, housing data, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE)

Earnings from FedEx, Micron, Nike, Walgreens, and more — spanning key sectors from logistics to retail

These aren’t just economic reports. They often are the market signals for opportunity.