T&Q Morning Briefing

Good morning. Investors enter Tuesday on edge following another bruising session that pushed major indices further into correction territory. Monday’s declines came after China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs and amid increasing concerns over a drawn-out trade war.

President Trump signaled he may be open to negotiations with some U.S. allies, but doubled down on pressure against China. Influential Chinese voices have hinted at further retaliation, keeping markets jittery.

With no major U.S. economic data on the docket today and earnings season still a week away, investors are left to parse policy headlines and central bank commentary. Global strategists, including those at Goldman Sachs and BlackRock, have now formally downgraded U.S. equities, citing heightened macro risks and volatile policy direction.

Meanwhile, corporate executives are beginning to speak out, warning that tariffs could dent profits, disrupt supply chains, and weigh on hiring.

Safe-haven demand remains strong. Gold is rebounding, while the dollar remains volatile and Treasury yields continue to slide. We expect market leadership to remain defensive, with heightened volatility and low conviction across asset classes.

Where Real Danger Lurks in Volatile Markets
Liquidity gaps, crowded trades, and policy uncertainty have created a treacherous setup, warn veteran strategists. Read full article →

CEOs Begin to Push Back
Business leaders across industries are publicly voicing concern over the White House’s aggressive trade stance. Read full article →

Trump Keeps Pressure on China, Signals Flexibility Elsewhere
While Beijing faces escalating tariffs, the door remains open to deals with other trading partners. Read full article →

The New Cost of Homeownership
As home equity booms, the true cost of ownership—including taxes and insurance—continues to rise. Read full article →

China Bloggers Hint at Further Retaliation
Social media voices tied to state influence suggest additional countermeasures may be on the horizon. Read full article →

What Makes This Selloff Different
Analysts note unusual breadth and velocity in the current market decline. Read full article →

“Don’t Be a Hero,” Says Steve Eisman
The famed investor of Big Short fame warns traders to remain cautious amid deep macro risk. Read full article →

Goldman Sachs and BlackRock Turn Bearish
Two of Wall Street’s largest firms downgrade U.S. equities amid deepening concerns over recession and earnings pressure. Read full article →

Markets endured another volatile session on Monday, with equities swinging wildly on conflicting tariff headlines. Stocks initially sold off sharply overnight as investors reacted to China’s retaliatory 34% tariffs on U.S. goods and concerns over a deepening global trade war. However, markets spiked midmorning on unconfirmed reports that the U.S. might delay tariffs by 90 days—headlines that were quickly debunked by the White House. The reversal sent stocks back into the red, closing near session lows.

The S&P 500 swung more than 8% intraday, ultimately closing lower for the seventh time in eight weeks and now down 18% from its mid-February high. The Nasdaq managed a modest gain, while the Dow and Russell 2000 both declined. Volatility spiked again, with the VIX hovering near 50 for most of the day.

President Trump reiterated on social media that China must withdraw its retaliatory tariffs or face an additional 50% levy starting April 9. He added that all talks with Beijing would be suspended, though he remains open to discussions with other countries. Overseas, markets fared even worse: Japan’s Nikkei fell nearly 8%, the Shanghai Composite dropped over 7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tumbled more than 13%—its worst day since 1997. European equities were broadly lower, led by the FTSE and DAX.

Commodities slumped as recession fears weighed on demand expectations. WTI crude closed below $61, its lowest since 2021, while gold fell to $2,973/oz. Treasuries whipsawed, with the 10-year yield plunging to 3.88% before rebounding to 4.21% by the close. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and others slashed their S&P 500 targets, citing earnings risk and heightened recession odds.

Amid the uncertainty, diversification has proven valuable. U.S. investment-grade bonds are up over 3% year-to-date, while international equities have outperformed domestic benchmarks. Volatility is likely to persist as investors await further developments on trade and policy direction.

Futures are pointing to a respite from the sell-off, though they will be quick to re-enter risk-off mode. As the tariff regime settles in and retaliation brews, investors will remain laser-focused on potential de-escalation—or further escalation. For now, downside protection and patience may be the best course of action.