Jobs Data on Deck | Tech Rebound in Focus | Treasury Yields Ease After Spike

Good morning Traders and Quants! Futures are pointing to a modestly higher open as markets prepare to glean every detail they can out of the ADP private payrolls release for insight into what tomorrow’s NFP print has in store. We’ll be keeping a close eye on Treasuries today to see if yesterday’s bond rally continues, or if yields return to their march higher. Sector rotations also continue to be a focal point, with breadth beyond the “Mag 7” providing a critical indication of the overall health of the market.

Yesterday’s action helped regain footing after a choppy start to the month, with tech leading the way. A favorable ruling in Google’s antitrust case provided the spark: Alphabet soared nearly 9% after a federal judge allowed it to retain Chrome and its $20 billion search deal with Apple, while Apple itself gained over 3%. The relief rally lifted the Nasdaq and S&P 500, though the Dow lagged. Treasury yields eased back after Tuesday’s selloff, with the 10-year settling near 4.21% and the 30-year dipping under 4.9% after briefly touching 5%. Gold once again stole headlines, breaking through to record highs above $3,600 an ounce as investors sought safe havens. Oil, by contrast, sank almost 3% on reports OPEC+ may boost output again at its October meeting.

The backdrop remains a tug-of-war between seasonal headwinds and solid fundamentals. September is historically a tough month, averaging a 1.5% decline for the S&P since 2000, but earnings have been resilient, the consumer continues to spend, and the Fed looks closer to easing. That leaves Friday’s jobs report as the critical catalyst for direction, with markets expecting another sub-100k print and unemployment edging up to 4.3%.

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Tech was the undisputed driver of yesterday’s rebound. Alphabet’s legal victory relieved fears of a structural breakup, removing a long-standing overhang and reinforcing confidence in big tech’s staying power. Apple benefitted directly as Google’s default search partner, giving the Mag 7 trade fresh fuel after a shaky start to September. Sector breadth was otherwise mixed, with technology and communication services up sharply, while energy lagged under the weight of sliding crude.

On the macro side, the bond market remains a focal point. Long-term yields have climbed globally, reflecting fiscal pressures from heavy public spending. U.S. 30-year Treasuries briefly touched 5% before easing, while British and German long-end yields also reached multi-decade highs this week. Investors are watching whether the Fed’s September cut can relieve pressure, but for now, demand appears concentrated in the 7–10-year part of the curve. Equity positioning is tilted toward caution, with Wall Street conferences this week highlighting both the opportunities in AI and the risks of overconcentration.

Global tensions continue to shape the investment backdrop. Chinese firms are accelerating their push into Europe as U.S. tariffs and trade restrictions bite harder. The yuan and Shanghai equities have shown tentative strength, and officials hope this creates a self-reinforcing cycle of confidence. At the same time, Europe is bracing for the ripple effects of U.S.-China friction, particularly as Beijing deepens its commercial links with Moscow. Reports suggest Vladimir Putin may be preparing a renewed offensive in Ukraine, a risk that could once again destabilize energy markets.

Elsewhere, North Korea has pledged “full support” for Russia, signaling that security alliances across Eurasia are hardening. In the Western Hemisphere, Washington’s recent strike against drug traffickers rattled Mexico, prompting reassurance from U.S. lawmakers that bilateral ties remain intact. Yet questions remain over the legality of maritime counter-narcotics operations, underscoring how economic and security fronts are increasingly intertwined. For investors, these dynamics point to heightened volatility in commodities, especially oil, and continued demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

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In Washington, multiple political cross-currents are converging. Congress faces another partisan standoff over government funding, with potential implications for fiscal stability just as bond markets flash stress. The Supreme Court is also set to weigh in on tariff authority, keeping trade policy in legal limbo. Meanwhile, vaccine policy remains politicized, with RFK Jr. reshaping the CDC’s posture and Florida moving to end state-level mandates.

Technology and defense are also in the spotlight. The Pentagon awarded a new AI contract to TurbineOne, underscoring how national security spending is fueling private-sector innovation. Separately, courts continue to influence the tech landscape: Alphabet’s antitrust ruling sent ripples through markets and underscored how regulation remains a wildcard for mega-cap performance. Against this backdrop, political maneuvering is a market driver in its own right, with investors forced to weigh policy risk alongside fundamentals.

Markets are trying to balance powerful cross-currents: seasonal volatility, sticky inflation, and political pressure on the Fed on one hand, and resilient earnings, a cooling labor market, and a likely policy pivot on the other. Yesterday showed how quickly sentiment can turn on a single catalyst, with Alphabet’s ruling sparking a relief rally and gold’s record highs reminding everyone of the safety trade. With Friday’s jobs report looming, the near-term path may be bumpy, but the underlying setup still suggests opportunity in quality equities and duration in bonds.