
T&Q Morning Briefing
Tech Takes a Breather | Tariffs in Focus | Countdown to Jackson Hole

From the T&Q Desk
U.S. equities opened the week on firmer ground, with the Nasdaq climbing to a fresh record on Monday. Semiconductor strength (AVGO, NVDA) and large-cap tech leadership (AMZN, MSFT) pushed indices higher, while the S&P 500 edged modestly green. Gains were supported by a drop in Treasury yields, with the 10-year touching 4.04%, its lowest level since April, as traders continued to price in a September rate cut. Gold added to its remarkable run, notching another all-time high and showing no signs of stopping, while oil cleared a huge catalyst after OPEC+ confirmed only a modest October production increase.
On the data front, Friday’s weak nonfarm payrolls print is still reverberating, with tomorrow’s benchmark revisions expected to show job growth was overstated by as many as 800,000 positions through March. Today’s macro calendar is light, but traders are bracing for CPI and PPI later in the week. Futures point to a slightly higher open, with attention squarely on Apple’s iPhone event this afternoon and Oracle’s earnings report tonight.
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Disclosures
Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur.
Potential Uber return for Marc Cuban does not take into account dilution.
The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.
In making an investment decision, investors must rely on their own examination of the issuer and the terms of the offering, including the merits and risks involved. Mode Mobile has filed a Form C with the Securities and Exchange Commission in connection with its offering, a copy of which may be obtained here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1748441/000164117225025402/ex99.pdf
Word Around the Street
Markets enter Tuesday in a holding pattern, caught between cooling labor data, looming inflation prints, and a heavy slate of corporate catalysts. Treasury yields continue to ease, underscoring how firmly rate cuts are priced in, but equity positioning remains tactical. Goldman warns that any deceleration in hyperscaler AI spending could shave 20% off S&P 500 multiples, though current guidance still trends higher. At the same time, consumer-facing sectors continue to lag index earnings growth, and lumber’s decline is flashing a cautionary signal on housing demand.
Globally, Japan’s leadership transition, the French government collapse, and ongoing tensions in energy markets are feeding into volatility. The yen has weakened sharply on Ishiba’s resignation, while European investors are navigating political instability alongside ECB policy expectations. Domestically, the focus remains on Wednesday’s PPI and Thursday’s CPI, the last key inputs before the Fed meets next week. With a 25-basis point cut fully priced and odds of 50 creeping higher, traders will be watching closely for how the inflation narrative balances against the labor-market slowdown. For now, the tone is cautious but constructive, tech leadership holds, but breadth remains thin.
The pressure is on for tech companies to deliver on AI. Apple and Oracle both face key tests
— #Bloomberg (#@business)
10:32 AM • Sep 9, 2025
Trade Winds & Global Shifts
Europe’s political landscape grew more fragile after the French government collapsed under the weight of a parliamentary confidence vote, leaving President Macron to nominate a fifth prime minister in under two years. French bond spreads widened, with the country now priced as risky as Italy in some markets, a development that underscores investor anxiety around debt sustainability in the eurozone. Meanwhile, Japanese politics remain in flux after Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation, with markets favoring candidates who can stabilize policy and currency dynamics. The yen weakened sharply, sending Japan’s yield curve steeper.
In the Middle East, Israel expanded its offensive in Gaza, issuing evacuation orders across the city as regional tensions escalated. At the same time, U.S. allies remain wary of Washington’s focus on tariffs and energy policy. OPEC+ agreed to modest supply increases for October, navigating the delicate balance between U.S. pressure for lower prices and member-state revenue needs. In our view, global markets are adjusting to a multipolar environment: U.S. political volatility, European fiscal fragility, and Asia’s shifting leadership are pulling investors toward safe havens like gold and high-quality sovereign bonds.
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D.C. in the Driver’s Seat
Domestic headlines remain dominated by the tug-of-war over tariffs, trade, and fiscal maneuvering. Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that if the Supreme Court overturns parts of the administration’s tariff framework, the U.S. could be forced into issuing large refunds to consumers and businesses, a messy scenario that underscores the political stakes. At the same time, new tariff rules have created “maximum chaos” for retailers and consumers, with surprise charges showing up across supply chains. The resulting uncertainty is weighing on consumer sentiment even as spending remains relatively resilient.
Elsewhere, the House Oversight Committee signaled it would pursue further inquiries into President Trump’s handling of Epstein-related documents, adding fuel to ongoing political controversies. Against this backdrop, the administration continues to lean on economic policy (tariffs, Fed pressure, and regulatory fights) as its central lever. With payroll revisions and inflation data due this week, the interplay between politics and economics will only intensify.
Economic Data
NFIB Business Optimism Index
Redbook
Non Farm Payrolls - Annual Revision
Earnings Reports
ORCL
SNPS
Overnight Markets
Asia: Nikkei -0.42%, Shanghai -0.51%
Europe: FTSE 0.27%, DAX -0.27%
U.S. Pre-Market

Final Thoughts
Markets remain in a holding pattern: buoyed by lower yields and mega-cap tech strength, but tethered to the next round of labor and inflation data. Today’s payroll revisions could prove pivotal, setting the tone for the Fed’s September 17 meeting and determining whether we see a conventional quarter-point move or something larger. Political risk at home and abroad continues to filter into markets, from French instability to tariff chaos in the U.S. For investors, the task is balancing near-term volatility against the longer-term trend: rate cuts are coming, the AI trade still dominates leadership, and fundamentals remain intact even as sentiment swings.