T&Q Morning Briefing

Good morning. After a turbulent week, markets head into Friday grappling with the full weight of the Trump administration’s sweeping tariff initiative. The economic fallout is beginning to show, with global equity markets broadly lower, investor sentiment deteriorating, and risk assets under pressure.

Futures are selling off again this morning as China’s finance ministry just announced intentions to impose a 34% tariff on all goods imported from the US starting on April 10. to another lower open this morning as attention turns to the March jobs report. Expectations are for nonfarm payrolls to rise by 123,000, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2%. A strong report could further complicate the Federal Reserve’s path forward as it weighs inflationary pressure from tariffs against a still-resilient labor market.

Bond yields continue to fall, with the 10-year Treasury yield now hovering just above 4.0%, and gold remains firmly near record highs. In commodities, oil prices have stabilized after heavy selling, while copper continues to struggle amid fears of demand destruction. The U.S. dollar is bouncing back moderately after two days of pronounced weakness.

It is difficult to find optimism across the headlines as concern is rising about the long-term economic implications of the new trade regime. While the administration insists the moves will restore fairness and bring manufacturing back to U.S. shores, critics warn of inflation, retaliation, and stagnation. Expect markets to stay volatile until more clarity emerges from both Washington and global trading partners.

China to Impose 34% Retaliatory Tariff on U.S. Goods
Beijing responds to Washington’s latest moves with a sweeping 34% retaliatory tariff on all goods imported from the U.S., setting the stage for further trade escalation. Read full article →

What America’s Stock Market Plunge Means
Markets are re-pricing risk in real time as the U.S. enters a new era of aggressive protectionism. Tariffs have altered inflation expectations, the earnings outlook, and the Fed’s policy calculus. Read full article →

Trump’s Economic Vision Focuses on Manufacturing at All Costs
Trump’s new economic doctrine centers on boosting domestic industry, but may ignore the complexities of modern supply chains and risks undercutting consumer demand. Read full article →

Bill Gross: Don’t Buy the Dip
Legendary bond investor Bill Gross urges caution amid the selloff. He warns the trade backdrop could worsen and sees limited upside until volatility settles. Read full article →

Morgan Stanley Sees Lower Levels Ahead
The S&P 500 is nearing critical support levels, and Morgan Stanley strategists say a break below 4,750 could open the door to further downside. Read full article →

Tariff Rates Now Exceed Great Depression Levels
According to economic historians, the average U.S. tariff rate under Trump’s new plan exceeds the infamous Smoot-Hawley levels from the 1930s. Read full article →

Treasury Market Braces for Jobs Report and Powell
Treasury yields remain under pressure as traders look to today’s employment data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech for clues on the path forward. Read full article →

Tech Wipeout Erodes $1.4 Trillion in Market Cap
The Nasdaq’s worst-case tech scenario appears to be unfolding, with steep declines hitting mega-cap names and growth stocks amid tariff and demand concerns. Read full article →

El-Erian: Tariffs Could Tip U.S. Into Recession
Economist Mohamed El-Erian warns the current trajectory of U.S. trade policy poses serious risks to growth, saying we may be closer to recession than policymakers acknowledge. Read full article →

Markets closed sharply lower on Thursday after President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs, marking a significant escalation in trade policy. A baseline 10% tariff on all U.S. imports will go into effect April 5, while higher reciprocal tariffs—up to 46% in some cases—will begin April 9. Countries hit hardest include China (54% total with previous levies), Japan (24%), and the European Union (20%). Canada and Mexico received exemptions under USMCA terms for most goods, though some categories like steel and autos remain subject to duties.

The S&P 500 plunged 4.8%, its worst single-day loss since 2020, while the Nasdaq dropped 5.9% and the Dow fell by more than 1,600 points. Energy and technology sectors led the decline, and even typically defensive assets like gold and the dollar weakened amid a global wave of selling. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 10-year dipping below 4.00% intraday before closing near 4.05%.

The White House framed the tariff move as essential to leveling the playing field, citing trade imbalances and currency manipulation. However, economists and strategists warn that the combination of inflationary pressure and falling demand could drive the U.S. closer to stagflation. The new tariffs raise the average effective import rate from 2.3% to nearly 25%—a level unseen in over a century.

Economists estimate the tariffs could lower U.S. growth by up to 2.4% and increase inflation by 1.4%, based on historical Fed models. These projections have already led traders to price in up to four interest rate cuts by year-end, up from two just a week ago. However, Fed officials struck a cautious tone, suggesting they are not ready to respond immediately. Vice Chair Jefferson and Governor Cook both emphasized policy patience amid dual risks to inflation and employment.

Thursday’s economic data offered little relief. Jobless claims edged down to 219,000, but the ISM Services PMI fell to 50.8, just barely in expansion territory. The trade deficit narrowed to $122.7 billion, slightly better than expected. Meanwhile, oil prices plunged over 6% and gold prices pulled back 1.4% despite early safe-haven flows.

As markets reel, investors are watching for signs of global retaliation—or negotiation. Analysts suggest that tariff rates could eventually be scaled back through bilateral agreements, especially if countries move to lower their barriers or increase U.S. imports. Until then, volatility is likely to remain elevated.

The end of the week brings the highly anticipated March jobs report—and perhaps more questions than answers. Markets are pricing in heightened macro risk, and investor sentiment remains fragile. We’ll be watching how equities respond to Friday’s data, and whether gold and Treasurys continue to flash caution.