From the T&Q Desk
Markets continued their grind higher, setting new records in the face of mounting tariff headlines and mixed commodity signals. Investors appear to be betting that last-minute trade deals or implementation delays will soften the blow. Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all closed at fresh highs, while oil tumbled and small caps continued their quiet rally. Fed commentary is beginning to signal more openness to rate cuts, though the timeline remains uncertain.
In the face of rising headline risk, the T&Q Index remains up more than 10% since inception, with names like Ryerson (RYI) and Celestica (CLS) leading the way. Even in a market clouded by tariffs and inflation, well-positioned value and industrial plays are quietly driving gains.
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Word Around the Street
Thinking about the recent episode we did with Charlie McElligott where he referred to Trump as the Human VVIX
— #Joe Weisenthal (#@TheStalwart)
1:03 AM • Jul 11, 2025
Markets: New Highs Despite Heavy Headlines
U.S. stocks pushed higher again Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both logging new all-time highs. The Russell 2000 rose another 0.5% and is up 1.7% over the past five trading sessions. Airline shares rallied on Delta’s quarterly beat and raised guidance. Crypto assets surged with Bitcoin topping $113,000 and Ethereum climbing sharply.
Nine of eleven S&P sectors closed in the green. Only Communications and Technology slipped, largely due to weakness in software names.
Tariff escalation paused briefly with no new announcements, but prior threats continue to linger.
Small-cap stocks led again as traders rotated into domestic-exposed sectors less impacted by global trade volatility.
NYSE breadth remained positive and junk bond strength continued to echo equity market optimism.
Sentiment indicators pulled back slightly, with the NAAIM Exposure Index falling to 86.3 from last week’s 99.3, and AAII bull-bear spread narrowing to 5.8 from 11.9.
Geopolitics: Tariff Salvos and Regional Pushback
President Trump’s tariff campaign broadened yet again, with Brazil, Canada, and Vietnam joining the list of affected countries. Brazil received a threat of a 50% tariff unless legal proceedings against Bolsonaro are dropped. Canadian goods face a new 35% tariff beginning August 1. Vietnam has formally requested more lenient terms amid pressure on their export sector.
Canada’s leadership expressed concern but hinted at openness to talks.
Brazil’s President Lula responded defiantly, suggesting his country could withstand a decoupling.
Ongoing copper tariff developments continue to pressure import-dependent U.S. sectors, especially in energy and construction.
Domestic Politics: New Programs, Narrower Benefits
Details of the One Big Beautiful Bill are beginning to surface, revealing that some of the headline tax breaks are more modest in scope than first advertised. The real estate sector, in particular, may face stricter limits on deductions. Meanwhile, the administration announced that undocumented immigrants will no longer be eligible for federal early childhood programs such as Head Start.
The regulatory rollback effort is quietly expanding again, particularly in construction and energy.
Trump’s deregulatory push is seen by some as a bigger driver of growth than tariffs.
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Previous Trading Day Recap
Markets drifted upward through a quiet Thursday session. Airlines outperformed on earnings, Bitcoin miners surged, and energy stocks took a breather alongside falling oil prices. Breadth stayed positive with continued leadership from small caps.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh highs
Russell 2000 up 0.5%
Oil fell 2.6% to $66.57 on rising inventories and weaker demand forecasts
Gold edged up 0.14% to $3,325.70
Bitcoin reached $113,734
Bitcoin hit $118,000 today for the first time. 10 years ago it was trading at $291. That's a 405x increase (+82% annualized). $BTC
bilello.blog/newsletter
— #Charlie Bilello (#@charliebilello)
11:24 AM • Jul 11, 2025
Economic Data Preview: July 14–18
U.S. Producer Price Index (June)
Retail Sales (June)
Industrial Production (June)
Consumer Price Index (June)
Fed Speeches expected
Housing Starts (June)
Building Permits (June)
Initial Jobless Claims
Existing Home Sales (June)
Additional Fed commentary
Watch for signs of slowing inflation and consumer resilience. The PPI and CPI data will shape Fed expectations, while housing figures will offer clues on the depth of structural drag in real estate.
Earnings Preview: July 14–16
Earnings season begins in earnest next week, with several of the nation's largest financial institutions and industrial players reporting results:
Tuesday
JPMorgan Chase (JPM): EPS $4.45, Revenue $43.81B
BlackRock (BLK): EPS $10.54, Revenue $5.39B
Citigroup (C): EPS $1.70, Revenue $20.76B
Wells Fargo (WFC): EPS $1.41, Revenue $20.84B
Bank of New York Mellon (BK): EPS $1.73, Revenue $4.79B
Wednesday
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): EPS $2.68, Revenue $22.81B
Bank of America (BAC): EPS $0.90, Revenue $26.82B
Morgan Stanley (MS): EPS $2.07, Revenue $16.17B
Goldman Sachs (GS): EPS $9.81, Revenue $13.51B
ProLogis (PLD): EPS $0.69, Revenue $2.00B
PNC Financial (PNC): EPS $3.54, Revenue $5.61B
Kinder Morgan (KMI): EPS and Revenue expected Wednesday
Overnight Markets
Asia: Nikkei -0.19%, Shanghai +0.01%
Europe: FTSE -0.58%, DAX -1.09%
US Pre-Market (As of 7:00 AM ET, July 11, 2025)
Final Take: Markets Want to Go Higher, But Risks Are Accumulating
The rally remains resilient, but the sheer volume of tariff warnings is starting to wear on sentiment. Earnings season kicks off next week and could help re-anchor attention on fundamentals. The Fed is showing more willingness to consider cuts, but won’t act without clearer data. For now, risk assets remain bid.