Good morning Traders, Investors, & Quants — welcome to Wednesday's turn.

Markets are rallying — but stability doesn’t mean certainty.

The Israel-Iran ceasefire has cooled oil markets and lifted equities, with the S&P once again flirting with record highs.

But some key signals suggest caution:

Gold pulled back from recent highs, and oil’s retreat suggests a pricing-in of geopolitical calm — though that outlook could shift quickly.

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Markets Up on Ceasefire, But Economic Signals Mixed

U.S. stocks climbed Tuesday on news of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The 10-year yield dropped to 4.29%, and oil fell sharply — WTI declined 6% to $64.37 as supply concerns eased.

Small caps led a broad rally: IWM +1.32%, QQQ +1.66%, SPY +1.22%. Technology, Financials, and Communications outperformed, while Energy and Staples trailed.

Breadth was strong and sentiment firmed, with the Fear & Greed Index rising to 58.

Economic data offered a more cautious tone:

Powell’s testimony deferred hopes for a July rate cut, pushing expectations to September. Bond markets adjusted, but equities remained firm.

Geopolitical Update: Tensions Eased, but the Landscape Shifts

The ceasefire remains in place, following significant military engagement.

Preliminary reports suggest Iran’s nuclear capacity was disrupted but not dismantled.

Leaders on all sides are claiming some form of success. Oil markets appear to be pricing in a return to stability, though the Strait of Hormuz still presents a strategic flashpoint.

Domestic Politics: Progressive Upset in NYC, Fiscal Talks in Focus

In a surprise outcome, Zohran Mamdani won New York’s mayoral primary over Andrew Cuomo, amid strong turnout despite heatwave conditions.

Meanwhile, lawmakers in Washington continue to debate deficit reduction and the shape of a potential budget deal.

Trump’s proposed tax bill is making progress, with discussions ongoing around deductions, energy incentives, and new credits.

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Markets Recap

Markets welcomed a break from rising tensions, and data surprises haven’t yet shaken investor confidence.

Still, with mixed economic indicators and geopolitics evolving, this isn’t the time to get complacent.

Keep an eye on yields, tariffs, and the broader tone around inflation.