Good morning! Futures are set to open higher despite new tariff announcements sending copper prices soaring and traders weighing the odds of global trade disruptions. U.S. large caps have drifted slightly lower this week while small caps outperformed. Meanwhile, economic data remains light this week—but inflation signals are showing in small business sentiment and commodity costs.

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Markets: Tariffs Rattle, But Optimism Persists
Markets wobbled Tuesday, with the S&P 500 down 0.1%, the Dow off 0.4%, and the Nasdaq flat. Small caps rallied, up 0.8%, buoyed by domestic-facing strength and tariff hedging. Copper futures surged nearly 10% after President Trump floated a 50% tariff on imports, jolting commodity traders. Oil rose 0.5%, the dollar gained 0.4%, and gold retreated.

Tariffs are back in focus. New reciprocal rates were announced, with Trump threatening strict enforcement if deals aren’t reached by August 1.

Copper prices popped on threats to raise import duties; Chile and Canada are the key suppliers.

Pharmaceutical imports are also on the chopping block—Trump suggested tariffs as high as 200% unless production shifts to the U.S.

Goldman Sachs raised its S&P targets to 6,400 (3-month), 6,600 (6-month), and 6,900 (12-month), citing easing expectations and strong megacap fundamentals.

Tesla has become the most volatile megacap stock—moving more than 5% on 23% of trading days over the past 6 months.

Junk bonds continue signaling economic strength, aligning with equity market optimism.

Fear & Greed Index spiked to 77, up from 61 last week.

Geopolitics: Copper, China & Global Realignment
The Trump administration is using trade deals not just for leverage, but as a tool to undercut Chinese strategic positioning. The copper tariff could significantly shift the global supply chain, with implications for EVs and energy infrastructure. Elsewhere:

China’s debt crisis is deepening—consumer defaults are rising fast.

Putin is signaling openness to ceasefire talks, possibly under U.S. pressure.

Trump’s Africa policy shifts toward extraction and bilateral economic deals—raising eyebrows in multilateral circles.

Global oil markets are reacting to competition as U.S. producers gain share.

Domestic Politics: Government Reshaped, Power Consolidated

Trump’s new executive orders target federal staffing reductions and Supreme Court oversight. The GOP is split on implications, but voters seem unfazed. Meanwhile, the Elon Musk–Doge story highligh

ts the chaotic intersection of tech, finance, and political influence in a deregulated environment.

The Supreme Court ruling enables broader executive power to restructure agencies.

Midterm election dynamics are beginning to shift as Republican voters realign priorities around tariffs, inflation, and cultural issues.

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Markets traded sideways Tuesday with limited catalysts. Energy (+2.6%), Materials (+0.85%), and Health Care (+0.44%) outperformed, while Financials (-0.9%), Consumer Staples (-0.87%), and Utilities (-1%) lagged. Breadth favored advancers 3:2, with the Russell 2000 outperforming.

Commodities were active: WTI crude rose to $68.33, gold fell 0.77% to $3,316.90, and the dollar strengthened as Trump tariff headlines dominated.

Markets are digesting a lot of risk: tariffs, geopolitics, executive overreach, and inflationary pressures. For now, momentum continues, but fragility is creeping back in. The next catalyst could come from FOMC minutes or global reaction to trade enforcement.