T&Q Morning Briefing

Markets are digesting the first wave of mega-cap earnings just as geopolitical clarity emerges—with President Trump announcing a major trade deal with Japan and setting his sights on Europe. Meanwhile, under the surface, leadership is quietly shifting: small caps are breaking out, gold is climbing again, and insider selling is hitting a record. The next phase of this rally could look very different from the last.

The T&Q Index has now climbed over 20% over the past month, pushing its total return since inception to 21.4%. That return? It means $100K turned into $121,400 in 30 days. That’s real alpha, the kind that changes balance sheets, not just spreadsheets.

Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS), one of our recent selections, surged more than 20% last week following a strong earnings report. Investor sentiment is building around its strategic partnerships, particularly a rumored alignment with a major AI platform, as a key catalyst. Navitas’ positioning in next-generation power semiconductors continues to attract attention, with growing optimism about its long-term role in enabling AI infrastructure. We extracted these insights over two weeks ago and the market is just now catching up.

1. Trump’s Trade Blitz: Japan Deal Inked, EU Next
Markets are pointing to a higher open this morning on the heels of a new trade agreement with Japan featuring a standardized 15% tariff rate, lower than many feared. Confidence has improved around Trump’s strategy as more deals materialize, including smaller agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines. Focus now shifts to Europe, where negotiations remain tense ahead of the August 1 deadline. The EU is signaling growing concern, with retaliation measures already under discussion. Markets may welcome clarity, but persistent uncertainty in global trade policy continues to pressure supply chains and corporate forecasts.

2. Small-Cap Resurgence: Russell’s Golden Cross
The Russell 2000 is on the verge of its first golden cross in 18 months, a technical milestone where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day. Historically, this setup has often marked the start of extended rallies in smaller-cap equities. Tuesday’s 1% gain in the index extended its outperformance versus the Nasdaq for the second straight session, suggesting that market leadership may be broadening. With megacaps consolidating and valuation concerns resurfacing, investors appear to be rotating into more cyclical and domestically focused names.

3. The Fed Under Fire as Powell Holds the Line
President Trump again lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, suggesting rates should be 300bps lower and mocking the cost of the Fed’s headquarters renovation. Treasury Secretary Bessant reiterated support for Powell’s position while hinting that the Fed should consider near-term easing. The FOMC meets next week, and while a rate cut is unlikely in July, the debate is intensifying. With limited economic data this week, the focus turns to Thursday’s PMIs and initial jobless claims. The market continues to price in a September cut with around 60% probability.

4. Sentiment Diverges Beneath the Surface
The S&P 500 has now closed above its 20-day moving average for 60 consecutive sessions, the longest streak since 1998. And it hasn’t seen a 1% down day in 24 trading days. Yet insider selling is surging: only 11.1% of companies have seen more buying than selling by officers and directors, an all-time low. Meanwhile, wage growth has now outpaced inflation for 26 consecutive months after two years of negative real wage prints. Taken together, these stats show growing divergence between top-down confidence and bottom-up caution.

Previous Trading Day Recap
Equities closed mixed on Tuesday, as megacap tech stocks finally took a breather. The Nasdaq broke its nine-day winning streak, slipping 0.4%, while the S&P 500 eked out a modest gain. The Dow added 0.4%, and the Russell 2000 led with a 1% rally as small caps continued their quiet comeback. Breadth was solid, with advancers outpacing decliners more than 2:1.

Bond yields slipped across the curve, with the 10-year Treasury settling around 4.33%. Oil fell 2.15% to $66.98 as trade tensions stirred demand concerns, while gold gained over 1% to $3,443.70—closing in on its all-time high. Meanwhile, earnings season picked up steam: General Motors reported better-than-expected earnings despite a $1.1B tariff hit, and the stage is now set for Alphabet and Tesla results after today’s close.

Want more insights like this…distilled, bold, and one step ahead of the headlines?

This is exactly what we cover in our daily investor briefings.

Smart traders read the surface.

Smarter ones read between the lines.

Earnings Reports

Economic Data 

Markets are absorbing a wave of trade developments, political noise, and early earnings results, and so far, the tone remains constructive. The rotation of leadership from tech to small caps, is a bullish development, showing markets are risk on and the animal spirits in the US are thriving!