T&Q Morning Briefing

Good morning. Futures are sharply lower this morning as investors digest the full scope of the White House’s reciprocal tariff policy unveiled yesterday. While some clarity was delivered, the policy’s breadth and tone have raised fresh concerns about global demand, inflation, and supply chain stability.

The S&P 500 slipped in late trading Wednesday, and commodities broadly sold off as traders reassessed global growth expectations. Oil prices fell on fears of declining international trade volume, and copper—seen as a barometer for industrial demand—dropped sharply. In contrast, gold remains near record highs, signaling continued risk aversion.

Internationally, Europe’s DAX and FTSE are trading lower this morning following sharp declines in U.S. equities. Asian markets closed lower overnight, with the Nikkei down over 3% at one point. The Shanghai was marginally lower.

Today’s economic data includes:

On the earnings front, Conagra (CAG) and Acuity Brands (AYI) report this morning, while Constellation Brands (STZ) releases after the bell.

Investors are now asking: How aggressive will global retaliation be? And can the Federal Reserve continue to ignore rising uncertainty while inflation remains sticky? We believe diversification and flexibility remain key, especially as policy direction and macro conditions remain fluid.

Trump’s Tariff Plan Signals a 19th Century Reversal
President Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariff policy marks a return to protectionist thinking unseen since the late 1800s. The approach imposes tariffs based on the rates U.S. goods face abroad, with limited regard for modern supply chains or cooperative trade frameworks. Economists warn the plan could backfire by raising consumer prices and damaging key sectors.
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Can Free Traders Mount a Defense?
With America moving aggressively on tariffs, traditional defenders of free trade—like the EU and WTO—face new challenges. While retaliation is expected, divisions among key allies could make a coordinated response difficult. The global trading system may be in for a prolonged period of turbulence.
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Global Manufacturing Hit by U.S. Tariffs
Tariff uncertainty is already weighing on global factory activity. Manufacturers are facing rising input costs, falling export orders, and growing concerns about recession risk as supply chains begin to fray.
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Car Prices in the Crosshairs
Consumers are likely to see higher car prices in coming months, particularly for imported models and replacement parts. The U.S. auto industry faces a delicate balance as it tries to navigate rising costs without alienating buyers.
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What the Trade Gap Tells Us
As the U.S. pushes for trade rebalancing, understanding the composition of America’s trade deficit offers important context. Key insights from this chart-driven explainer may help investors gauge where future pressure points lie.
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The Math Behind Trump’s Tariff Strategy
President Trump’s “very, very, very simple” calculation for reciprocal tariffs may sound intuitive, but economists say it misses the complexity of modern trade dynamics. The strategy may expose the U.S. to unintended consequences and retaliation.
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Europe Warns of Blowback
Germany’s economy minister warned that if Europe bands together, it can pressure the U.S. into reconsidering its tariff stance. The comment underscores rising tension among allies and the prospect of drawn-out trade skirmishes.
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Commodities Slide on Demand Worries
Prices for industrial commodities fell across the board on Wednesday, with traders citing weaker demand expectations and the threat of broad-based trade disruption. Copper, oil, and aluminum all declined, extending a multi-week slump.
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Markets closed mixed on Wednesday ahead of President Trump unveiling the details of his long-awaited reciprocal tariff plan. While some industries saw limited relief, the sweeping nature of the tariffs and their blunt, country-by-country methodology rattled investors. The S&P 500 fell over 2% immediately following the announcement, with the Dow and the Nasdaq following suit and dropping 1.0% and 3.0%, respectively, as markets processed the implications of the policy.

The plan imposes tariffs on a wide range of goods from countries with higher tariff rates on American exports, with notable hikes on cars, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products. The White House framed the plan as restoring fairness, but analysts noted the simplicity of its logic may lead to overreach and unintended consequences.

Commodity markets reacted swiftly: copper and crude oil prices declined on fears of weakened global trade and demand. Treasury yields moved modestly lower, with the 10-year settling at 4.17%, while gold remained steady near all-time highs.

Tariffs have moved from speculation to implementation. The weeks ahead will test the resilience of global supply chains, corporate margins, and investor confidence. Volatility is likely to remain elevated, and we’ll be watching for retaliatory measures, shifts in inflation data, and how the Fed reacts to the evolving macro landscape.