Stocks clawed back from Wednesday’s wobble as energy and metals took command. The Dow added 0.31 %, the S&P 500 rose 0.58 %, and the Nasdaq outperformed at +0.89 %.

The rally had little to do with tech earnings and everything to do with geopolitics: coordinated U.S.–EU sanctions on Russian energy exports ignited crude to the tune of +5.3 % and gold ~1.7 %. The move spilled over into cyclicals, lifting oil majors and industrials while airlines slumped on fuel costs.

Treasury yields stayed anchored near 3.95 %, keeping rate-cut optimism intact despite the federal shutdown stretching into day 23. Beneath the surface, breadth improved — a sign traders are still betting on resilience over retreat. The market, as the morning note put it, feels more “paused than panicked.”

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In his piece at Ritholtz Wealth Management’s blog, Josh Brown argues that the private credit (non-bank lending) world is in the find-out phase… With several isolated failures already surfacing among private credit funds, BDCs and regional lenders. 

While it’s too soon to call it the next systemic crisis, the structure matters: these lending vehicles underpin several limbs of the current bull market (corporate profits, AI capex, deregulation, credit flow). If private credit seizes up, those legs could wobble.

For traders this means a defensive nuance: you don’t need to short private credit head-on yet, but you should monitor it like a nervous roommate in the kitchen. This is a latent risk that could trigger broader shifts (tighter credit, slower AI investment, valuations under pressure) and not necessarily in the places most expect. Don’t assume private credit trouble means immediate collapse; assume it means something subtle shakes that rolls through rates, spreads, and risk premia instead.

Private credit looks like an unattended tinder pile, not a burning fire… but markets don’t always wait for flames. The smart play is to keep an eye on it, tilt toward portfolio protection (e.g., credit-spread hedges, quality over leverage) and avoid assuming all credit markets are equal just because banking is “safe.”

Bloomberg’s Odd Lots this week dives into one of 2025’s strangest market paradoxes: a falling dollar amid surging U.S. assets. BIS economist Hyun Song Shin offers a crisp explanation… the world isn’t abandoning the dollar, it’s hedging it. Foreign investors are snapping up U.S. stocks and Treasurys while using FX swaps to neutralize currency risk, meaning every dollar bought is quietly sold forward. The effect: dollar softness without dollar flight.

Shin warns this “hedged dollar” regime hides fragility. If hedge costs jump or swap liquidity cracks, those same investors would have to buy back dollars en masse, flipping today’s calm into a short-squeeze. The irony: stability now could be setting up the next bout of dollar chaos.

The conversation also touches on fintech's quiet role (from stablecoins to digital brokers) in making dollar hedging easier than ever. There’s some contrarian gold here: the dollar’s weakness may be technical, not terminal, and the next dollar rally could start from a place of supposed safety.

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Tomorrow’s CPI release is the hinge for the week. If price pressures stay soft, the combination of falling yields and firm earnings could extend this rotation into year-end. But any upside surprise could snap the calm, especially with oil spiking and the dollar firming again.

Overnight, watch crude’s follow-through and Asia’s response to Trump’s expanded sanctions; Japan’s ¥153 per dollar level remains key for global risk tone. Into Friday, the setup favors cautious optimism: energy leadership, stable bonds, and traders still willing to buy dips while waiting for proof that the inflation fight is finally over.