T&Q Evening Edition
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The Evening Rewind
Markets got choppy today…
Small-caps surged into the open, but sold hard when the actual bell rang, with the Russell 2000 stalling and reversing… before a slow grind back up which had it settle almost exactly where it started the session. Oil also flipped, giving back morning gains when “not-bad” data failed to convert into genuine buying conviction. The setup shows how quickly sentiment can turn when traders see potential catalysts but lack fresh momentum to push through.
Meanwhile, bonds took center stage as the 10-year Treasury yield slid to ~4.04%, its lowest level since April. While rate-cut optimism helped futures recover intraday, today’s bond action leans more toward fear than relief… a sign that markets may be pricing in economic weakness, not Fed generosity, as we called out in the morning.
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Mortgage rates followed yields lower, falling to 6.28%, their lowest level since late 2024, almost guaranteeing the surge in refinancing activity will continue. Rate-sensitive pockets like housing and regional banks saw intraday volatility as investors reassessed the balance between growth slowdown risks and potential policy easing.
Tomorrow sets up as a potential volatility trigger. While today’s move lower in yields supported equities late in the session, traders are laser-focused on upcoming inflation data (PPI Wednesday, CPI Thursday) and a $39B 10-year Treasury auction that could swing bond markets hard. If inflation prints soft, small-caps and tech could regain momentum, but any upside surprise may force traders back into defensive sectors and reignite volatility. With rate-cut odds climbing but growth signals flashing caution, tomorrow’s session could deliver the next big directional break.
Onto the good stuff…
Your Evening Read
Private Credit at the Ball: Too Polite to Borrow, Too Eager to Lend
In this clever CAIA deep dive, private credit’s meteoric rise tells a story worthy of Jane Austen; equal parts ambition, allure, and quiet risk.
In an era where capital courts deals like a bashful suitor, private credit has waltzed from obscurity into the limelight… but now it's tripping over its own excess. With banks sidelined and funds flooding in, lenders are scrambling for borrowers who haven’t ghosted them yet. Expect fewer covenants, thinner spreads, and awkward extended relationships, with many investors eager to dance with borrowers who might not be ready to commit.
Podcast Highlight
Why China Builds at Breakneck Speed… and the U.S. Wields a Lawyer’s Gavel
On the always insightful Odd Lots podcast, China tech analyst Dan Wang slays the "China slowdown" narrative with one killer line: “China is an engineering state bringing a sledgehammer to problems… the U.S. brings a lawyer’s gavel.”
His view? While headline GDP may be decelerating, China still blitz-builds—new cities, high-speed rail, infrastructure at mind-boggling scale… and all at speeds that would take decades in the West. Credit to Dan and Bloomberg for serving up a contrarian yet grounded take here: Western pessimism may be wildly overblown.