Markets rebounded today in a somewhat elusive turn: while the tech-led AI names remain under pressure, a batch of stronger-than-expected private-sector data nudged risk sentiment back into play. The S&P 500 rose ~0.4%, the Dow gained ~0.5%, and the Nasdaq added just under 1%.

The two standout data points were the ADP private payrolls (+42K vs +28K expected) and the ISM Services PMI (52.4 vs 50.8 expected). Both suggested the U.S. economy remains more resilient than feared amid the government shutdown, helping push yields and the dollar modestly higher and reviving confidence in cyclical sectors.

Yet the relief was tempered. Tech names, especially those exposed to AI infrastructure, remained under scrutiny. The prior day’s sharp correction in chips and software had the sector treading carefully. Valuation concerns remain front-and-centre, particularly given the mixed guidance from several large-cap names.

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In this fun Moontower essay, psychology-and-markets author Ben Carlson draws a sharp comparison: the game of poker isn’t just a metaphor for trading, it’s a micro-laboratory. Carlson argues that traders who play poker learn three things fast: how to deal with hidden information, how to manage shifting odds, and how to control emotion when everything you know yesterday gets invalidated today. The piece explains that while earning beats and macro prints grab headlines, markets are more often won by players who master decision-making under uncertainty.

Carlson uses examples of pro-poker players who apply three rules to markets: fold when the odds aren’t in your favor, raise when they are, and walk away when your edge disappears. He threads that mindset through modern algorithms built on incomplete information, retail flow trends and institutional positioning. In other words: even the most quant-driven trade is still a bet where the rivals are other humans reacting to the same noise you are.

For traders that means the edge isn’t always in finding a pattern or a stat that’s new… it’s in playing the hand you’re dealt better than others. Stay in the best games (sectors you understand), size the pot realistically (manage risk), and as Carlson puts it: “The market’s no poker table, but it sure feels like one.”

In this edition of the Simple but Not Easy podcast, host Danny Noonan and Morningstar analyst Zach Evens tackle a question that’s quietly reshaping portfolios: why small caps (the traditional engines of stock-market growth) have fallen so far behind. Once celebrated for their “small-cap premium,” the segment has underperformed large caps by more than 400 percent since the early 1990s.

Evens explains that much of this gap traces back to the privatization of growth. The most promising young firms are staying private longer (or never going public at all) while private equity and venture capital soak up opportunities that once fueled small-cap indices. That’s drained quality from the public small-cap pool and left investors competing over fewer, more cyclical names. Add higher sensitivity to downturns and a widening “quality gap” with large caps, and it’s easy to see why small caps have struggled to regain their old reputation.

The discussion closes on a cautiously contrarian note: with valuations now stretched between large and small companies, the setup looks eerily like the late 1990s—when small caps later staged a decade-long rebound. As Evens puts it, small-cap investing isn’t dead, just more selective. In an era when tomorrow’s giants are born in private markets, public investors must work harder to find the few that still slip through the IPO gate.

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Today’s trading finished on a note of cautious recalibration rather than roaring conviction. Markets oscillated all day, with the S&P 500 and Dow holding modest gains while the Nasdaq hovered near flat. The standout drivers came from earnings: Qualcomm posted solid results and helped tech sentiment regain footing, and Sempra delivered strong adjusted earnings though its guidance stirred questions about utilities’ risk-free narrative. Yields drifted slightly higher while the dollar firmed, a sign that while growth hasn’t collapsed, investors are pricing in less of an easy money future.

Tomorrow sets up for a quieter, yet structurally important, session. With major macro prints still missing due to the shutdown, focus shifts to earnings continuity and company-specific guidance. Key names such as Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) report before the open, and expect analysts to pivot attention toward sectors slow to rebound: media, utilities, and selected industrials. While headline economics are absent, company updates will serve as proxy data for the cycle’s direction.

In short: expect tomorrow to be about qualitative confirmation rather than quantitative shock. If guidance holds and breadth stabilises, today’s hangover may fade. If companies reset expectations lower, the market may spin its wheels until real-macro prints return.