Ghastly Brews & Global Bets

Markets carried the Fed’s cut into Friday with a risk-on mood. Tech and semis led early, helped by Nvidia’s $5B Intel deal making headlines, but the small-caps dipped, refusing to join the party. 

Commodities sent a mixed signal. Gold kept climbing, up as much as 1%, a classic hedge when traders sniff policy slippage or sticky inflation ahead, while crude oil gave back early gains on softer demand vibes. The dollar held steady, but not strong enough to cool risk appetites. Bond yields stayed elevated yet calm, leaving the curve intact and the overall mood one of “cautious optimism.”

Abroad, Dubai and Abu Dhabi stocks rallied after their central bank mirrored the Fed with a 25-bp cut, a reminder that U.S. moves ripple instantly across global markets. So far the takeaway is clear: Powell’s guidance is now the only story that matters. The rally has room as long as the Fed doesn’t fumble the message, but with gold flashing yellow and commodities wobbling, nobody’s fully relaxed heading into the weekend.

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Adam Grossman at HumbleDollar takes aim at Wall Street’s latest “innovations”, that is the endless churn of ETFs and complex funds, and calls them what they are: a witch’s brew. 

In the first half of 2025 alone, more than 640 new ETFs launched, outnumbering U.S. stocks themselves. Many are pricey, untested, and built on buzzwords like “tactical rotation” or “volatility triggers.” Grossman invokes Jack Bogle’s rule of thumb: higher costs mean worse results. He also cites Lindy’s Law: new products that haven’t weathered a full cycle don’t deserve your trust.

The history is damning. Morningstar research shows that 75% of “alternative” funds launched in the past decade are already dead. Even private equity, once the darling of big endowments, is delivering less as rates rise. Grossman’s point is sharp: Wall Street invents problems just to sell solutions.

Stick with simple, low-cost index funds and transparent allocations. If a pitch can’t be drawn with a crayon, don’t buy it. In an era of AI-branded ETFs and financial Frankensteins, Grossman’s plain-spoken warning is refreshing: there’s no magic wand in investing.

In this recent MacroVoices, Louis-Vincent Gave argues we’re entering a new macro regime: one defined by global reflation, supply chain shifts, and the dollar’s waning leverage. He points to the U.S. current account deficit (now ~6% of GDP) as a flashing red light: trillions flowing outward annually, which gives foreign holders increasing power over U.S. policy in the long run. The real opportunities, Gave says, lie in metals (copper especially), energy, and precious resources, not just more tech.

He warns that American consumers (especially in lower and middle income brackets) are getting squeezed by rising housing, auto, insurance costs, and policy uncertainty that makes industrial investment risky. Still, the global reflation trade is here: sectors tied to infrastructure, materials, and energy may outperform, especially in parts of Asia and EM where policy is more stable.

This isn’t just theory. Gave believes China is in a structural bull run (with state intervention and regulatory certainty), and that a meeting between Trump and Xi in Seoul could mark a turning point. Meanwhile, Gold gets a bid, not just as a hedge, but as a signal that investors expect policy dislocations and want insurance. As Gave puts it: better assets today might be copper and energy than just more gold or digital promises.