This morning we said the rally still lived and died on the Fed… and Powell’s tone would be the key. We also flagged AI as the market’s torchbearer and gold as the stealth breakout. By midday, that roadmap was playing out. Stocks, after record highs, finally eased. Nvidia, the face of the AI trade, slid more than 3% despite its $100B OpenAI splash. The message: hype is priced in, caution is back.

Powell didn’t deliver a dovish gift. Instead, he warned of “two-sided risks,” with inflation sticky and labor softening. He even noted equities look “fairly highly valued.” That was enough to spook tech, cool the S&P and Nasdaq, and send traders back into safety plays. Yields hovered steady 4.1% while gold ripped to another record, closing near $3,800… proving again why it’s the hedge of choice in uncertain times.

Outside the Fed, PMI data showed factory and services momentum cooling, while the OECD nudged U.S. growth forecasts higher for now but waved a red flag for 2026 if tariffs and policy missteps bite. Bottom line: today was a hand-brake pull on the AI melt-up. Bulls still have the trend, but Powell reminded everyone the Fed isn’t all-in on cuts. Safe havens are winning, and tomorrow’s data will tell us whether this was just a pause… or the start of a rethink.

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Callie Cox makes the case that there’s no perfect moment to enter the market… sometimes, waiting costs you more than risk ever will. She lays out four powerful reasons why sitting on cash isn’t just safe, it’s secretly expensive. From compounding returns to wage stagnation, the pressure is mounting to hit the “invest” button.

She argues wealth today often comes less from hard work and more from ownership. Stocks have trounced wages over multiple decades; in an era of AI, automation, and rising costs, relying solely on income feels riskier than ever. Add in historical data showing markets tend to drift upward even after highs, and the message is stark: staying out often costs more than jumping in.

But Cox doesn’t sugarcoat it. She warns that investment requires discomfort: bad days, volatile markets, uncertainty. The payoff comes over time. If you’re waiting for perfect clarity, you’ll often miss momentum. If you want growth (not just safety), now might be one of those times where starting feels scary, but smart.

Pictet strategist Luca Paolini joins Merryn Talks Money to argue we’re entering an “age of convergence” — where the U.S. might no longer dominate. A world where Europe, China, and others are stepping up. 

They break down what this means for investors: AI hype is real, but it may not protect U.S. dominance; bonds and gold may get more play as hedges; diversification matters more than ever. Paolini makes a case for rebalancing into non-U.S. equities and being cautious about overexposure to U.S. growth stocks.

For everyday investors, that means looking beyond the typical home-bias: maybe more exposure to China & Europe, considering who benefits from AI globally rather than just in Silicon Valley, and ensuring portfolio insurance (gold, defensives) isn’t neglected. It’s a wake-up call: the era of automatic U.S. supremacy is being questioned, and your portfolio should reflect that.