Stocks extended their post-CPI surge into the end of the session, ending the week on a firm note as traders doubled down on the soft-landing narrative. The Dow climbed over one percent, leading a broad advance that lifted the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to fresh multi-month highs. The driver was simple: inflation data cooled just enough to let the market imagine rate cuts without fearing a growth stall.

Energy cooled after its sanctions-driven spike, while gold eased and yields stayed anchored near 4.0percent… a balance that left both equity bulls and bond traders satisfied. Small-caps and cyclicals outperformed again, showing investors are leaning into domestic strength rather than hiding in mega-cap safety. The dollar steadied after a volatile week of hedging flows, reinforcing the “calm before the data storm” vibe.

It was the kind of session that feels orderly on the surface but full of setup beneath it. With FOMC, PCE, and GDP all coming next week, today’s rally may prove less a breakout than a positioning move. For now, sentiment ends the week relaxed, inflation anxiety dialed down, and everyone waiting to see if the Fed will validate the market’s optimism — or quietly remind it who’s in charge.

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Washington assumed stablecoins would stay in the payment lane, with no interest and no threat to the banking system. But as Open Banker’s Andrew Nigrinis argues, many stablecoin wallets and exchanges are already offering yield-like “rewards” that effectively turn them into deposit substitutes.

When consumers shift money from bank checking accounts into interest-bearing stablecoins the lending capacity of community banks shrinks. In a “no-yield” scenario the estimated drop in deposits could reduce lending capacity by around $250 billion (≈4 % of U.S. consumer/small business credit). But if yield becomes widely available, the estimate jumps to ≈$1.5 trillion in lost lending capacity (≈20 % of relevant credit).

For traders and investors that means the next spillover risk may come from credit contracting, not crypto crashing. Banks may appear calm, but small-business and farm loans are quietly under pressure and could create ripple effects across corporate credit, consumer credit spreads, and regional bank valuations. Watch fintech-platform yields, stablecoin adoption trends, and regulatory crack-downs (which could trigger reversals).

On MacroVoices, Tian Yang of Variant Perception laid out a quiet but striking shift in the macro landscape: the world might be slipping from disinflation into mild reflation. He argues that synchronized rate cuts, easier liquidity, and stabilizing growth in the U.S., Europe, and China are setting the stage for a global upturn… not a slowdown.

Yang sees inflation staying sticky around 3 percent rather than reigniting into crisis. Producer prices and services inflation bear watching, but his models suggest the “second wave” fears are overblown. Instead, he focuses on a pickup in real activity: improving PMIs, firmer trade data, and rising capital spending in semiconductors and AI, where returns still justify the boom.

His contrarian take: the next leg may look less like a melt-up and more like a broad, grinding recovery that favors commodities, cyclicals, and industrials over the AI darlings. For traders, the signal is subtle…  if the world is quietly reflating, yield curves may steepen, credit could outperform Treasurys, and the pain trade might be betting against resilience.

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Today’s cooler-than-expected CPI sealed the week’s tone: relief without euphoria. The print reinforced the “disinflation with growth intact” narrative and gave traders a reason to hold risk through the weekend. Futures imply slightly higher odds of a December rate cut, long yields slid toward 3.9%, and cyclicals outperformed as the market leaned into the idea that inflation is no longer the obstacle.

Heading into next week, four triggers dominate: the Federal Reserve meeting (Oct 28-29), U.S. durable goods on Mon, Chinese/Eurozone risk data midweek, and U.S. PCE/GDP on Fri (Oct 31). Built-in expectations are tilted toward a soft-landing narrative. If data aligns (and big tech earnings don’t derail), cyclicals and growth may stretch out; if policy signals jaw upward or numbers surprise to the upside, risk may rotate sharply into bonds or defensives.

In short: carry risk gently into the weekend, favouring cyclicals but respecting the hedge. The tape isn’t expecting fireworks tomorrow, but come Monday the tone could shift fast. Keep size moderate, keep options handy, and track dollar and yield moves as your early warning.