
T&Q Evening Edition
Bubbles & Biology
The Evening Rewind
This morning, we said CPI would be the hinge… and so it was.
The print landed at 2.9% y/y as we projected. Not the disaster hawks feared, not the free-money fantasy doves dreamed of. In other words: just enough to keep the easing story alive. Layer on jobless claims hitting a four-year high, and suddenly Wall Street’s conviction in September rate cuts soared and extended into not only the next one, but the one after that too.
The result? Records, records, records. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh highs, and small caps did even better, fueled by tech and rate-cut optimism. Gold flexed its safe-haven muscles yet again. Small caps continued to outperform, beating tTraders shrugged off the noise (from D.C. politics to overseas skirmishes) and kept their eyes on the prize: softer data means cheaper money, and cheaper money means green screens.
Bottom line: T&Q called the setup spot-on. We flagged CPI as the make-or-break, warned about volatility, and reminded us that the “path of least resistance” was higher. Today’s tape delivered exactly that… momentum intact, Fed cuts in sight, and traders walking into the weekend with an extra spring in their step.
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Your Evening Read
Valuations Are High… But The Bubble Claim Misses the Real Story
Yes, the S&P 500’s P/E is elevated.
Yes, comparing today’s valuations to historical averages turns skeptics into prophets.
But Ben Carlson argues there’s more nuance to the picture than the usual bubble alarm bell. Since 1990, valuations have generally moved higher… not arbitrarily, but because the kinds of companies dominating the index have transformed. Today’s giants are leaner, more efficient, built on intangible assets rather than heavy factories and rails.
While the top 10 mega-caps are pushing full bubble optics, most of the market looks merely elevated, not exploded. Carlson points out that earnings surprises from firms like Nvidia suggest expectations are baked in, but the buffer for disappointment is paper-thin. Unless you believe these mega-efficiency, ultra-margin businesses will always beat every risk, that’s a lot to ask.
This isn’t a warning to sell everything… It's a reminder that patience and realism are now the undervalued assets.
(If you love charts, you’ll want to check this one out, as Carson always brings the data receipts.)
Podcast Highlight
In this episode of The Investor’s Podcast, Kyle Grieve argues that many of the most powerful investing insights come not from finance, but from fundamental scientific principles.
Drawing on mental models from physics (like inertia and relativity), chemistry (catalysts, interactions), and biology (ecosystems, honest vs. dishonest signaling), he shows how these frameworks help identify winners, spot risk, and build advantage.
You don’t need a lab coat to see the value. Grieve explains how momentum in fundamentals beats noise, how leverage can magnify both opportunity and danger, and how ecosystems—not lone heroes—are often where real value multiplies.
If you’re tired of chasing the next shiny trend, this episode gives you a sturdier lens for spotting what lasts.