If today were a date, they took one look at you when they walked in the door and turned around and walked out. Stocks opened fine and then fell straight through the floor after a fresh tariff broadside: the Dow sank ~1.9% (-879), the S&P 500 slid ~2.7%, and the Nasdaq dumped ~3.6%. Semis were the pressure point (AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia all sharply lower) as Washington–Beijing tensions snapped back to center stage on rare-earths. Oil cracked ~4% to the lowest since May’s “Liberation Day” fallout, while gold reclaimed $4,000 as the new/old hedge. The VIX finally woke up, sprinting above 20, and staples were the lone S&P sector with a pulse. Bonds did their job: 10-year yields eased toward ~4.05% as traders reached for duration.

Beneath the tape: the shutdown hit Day 10 and the administration said RIFs have begun—adding a fiscal/flow overhang to the macro. China’s counters (export licenses on rare earths; a Qualcomm probe) and talk of scrapped leader-level talks poured cold water on the “quiet glide into earnings” narrative. IPOs may still thread a path via the SEC’s 20-day workaround, but next week’s calendar (big banks, Beige Book, Powell & co. speaking, new lumber tariffs) will have to compete with fresh trade headlines. Net-net: optimism isn’t gone, but it now has to coexist with a very real risk-off impulse—and a market that just remembered it can go down fast.

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Private credit has gone from niche to overcrowded, and Morningstar’s latest deep dive asks the uncomfortable question: has too much money chased too few good deals? The numbers are staggering: global private credit assets have ballooned past $2.5 trillion, up nearly fivefold since 2015. Once a haven for savvy institutions picking up yield in a starved world, the space is now teeming with new entrants, looser underwriting, and copycat strategies.

Morningstar warns that excess capital is eroding returns and increasing risk concentration. With everyone funding similar middle-market borrowers, spreads are thinning, and loan covenants are weakening. Yet, the piece doesn’t scream “bubble.” Instead, it outlines a more nuanced landscape: the strongest managers with origination advantages, sector expertise, or niche lending strategies can still deliver alpha… especially if rates remain high and public markets stay volatile.

For investors, this is a classic late-cycle signal. Private credit’s success has attracted too much easy money, setting up a potential reckoning when defaults tick up. The lesson? Be selective, not scared. Stick with disciplined managers, avoid blind-pool funds, and watch liquidity risk closely. The gold rush phase may be ending, now comes the part where skill (and patience) matters more than ever.

Global head of BNY Investments and Wealth Jose Minaya joins Barry Ritholtz for a grounded look at how AI is actually transforming asset management. Forget the hype… this is how the pros are using it right now. Minaya details how his $2 trillion team applies machine learning to scour alternative data, optimize execution, and even deploy GPT-style research assistants (with human oversight). He’s bullish on the efficiency gains but clear-eyed about the pitfalls: black-box risks, over-crowded models, and the need for ethical guardrails.

For investors, the episode is a reality check. AI isn’t replacing human judgment just yet, it’s amplifying it. Catching hidden exposures, improving portfolio personalization, and forcing firms to hire more data scientists than traders. As Minaya puts it, “AI is a tool, not a crystal ball.” The edge still belongs to those who can think creatively about what machines miss.

It just signed a deal to get its tech in Apple's iPhone until 2040!

Online commenters are debating if this brand-new company will be the 7th trillion dollar stock.

Details on the controversy here.

Next week won’t just be busy—it’s loaded. The delayed CPI print now lands on Thursday, making it the centerpiece of a week otherwise dominated by central bankers and earnings. Nearly a dozen Fed officials are on the docket, including Chair Powell midweek, with markets parsing every adjective for timing clues ahead of the October 28–29 FOMC.

Earnings season also kicks off in earnest. Tuesday brings the first wave of heavyweights, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, BlackRock, Johnson & Johnson, and Wells Fargo, followed by a full week of financials. Analysts will be watching net interest margins, credit provisions, and capital-markets commentary for any signal that the slowdown or shutdown is bleeding into profits.

The setup is simple: a market that just remembered risk collides with a data calendar that’s been running silent. If the inflation print comes in cool, the bulls will call it confirmation; if it doesn’t, the narrative shifts fast from pause to pressure. Either way, volatility finally has a reason to stick around.