
T&Q Evening Edition
Calls & Cracks
The Evening Rewind
Markets finished the day mixed but calm… a quiet pause after gold’s record-breaking sprint and the AI wobble earlier in the week. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Nasdaq tacked on 1.1%, led by another tech rebound and defensive buying, while the Dow closed flat. Oil kept climbing near $62, hinting that traders are starting to price in some real economic resilience. But the day’s real winner was still gold, now above $4,060, as investors continued hedging every win with a whisper of fear.
The tone continues to be one of optimism on the surface, nerves underneath. Bonds barely moved, suggesting traders are in “show me” mode (believing in cuts, but not enough to bet the farm.) Even after days of steady gains, the tape feels heavy with second thoughts. Rate expectations are holding steady, but the earnings chatter and global politics (especially Europe’s trade spats and China’s slowdown) are keeping sentiment from running wild. The Bank of England further added to the worries by issuing a dire warning about AI valuations stating that there’s “flash crash risk if sentiment sours”.
And speaking of nerves under the surface… This evening’s read looks at option flows as another overlooked data point favoring that narrative. Read on for the details!
From Our Partners
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We recently sat down with Rickards to capture all the key details on tape.
Your Evening Read
Option Markets Tell the Tale the Index Won’t: A Deep Read
In his deep dive, Moontower tackles what the headlines rarely show: the story hidden in option flows. Yes, the piece is dense and data-heavy, but that’s precisely what makes it gold. The author walks through call/put skew, open interest shifts, volatility asymmetries, and “top of book” gamma zones, drawing lines between retail option aggression and real institutional conviction.
What’s striking: the pattern suggests that institutional players are quietly hedging downside while still leaning into upside. While the indexes grind higher, option markets aren’t buying into full complacency, even as many retail players do. If that divergence widens, it could foreshadow sharp air pockets the rest of the tape can’t see coming.
This is your cheat sheet. The index rally might look steady, but option data is flashing both confidence and caution.
Podcast Highlight
What Could Pull the Brakes on This Rally?
Lyn Alden argues that the speculative train is barreling forward… but it’s gaining momentum over cracks she expects will get tested. In this episode, she asks: what’s the shock strong enough to derail everything? Alden explores that in sharp detail, weighing inflation risks, tightening credit, stretched valuations, debt burden, and policy missteps. She’s not arguing for an end tomorrow,but saying every powerful rally has its undoing if conditions align.
She drills into sectors likely to feel the stress first: housing, industrials, small caps, and areas dependent on leverage. She also warns that by keeping short rates high and quantitative easing off the table, central banks may lack flexibility to respond when the train wobbles. For traders, the most useful parts of her playbook are the early signals she tracks: widening credit spreads, real-estate inventory spikes, margin calls, and volatility in offsetting assets like gold or bonds. In short: she’s not doom-casting — she’s mapping edge conditions.
From Our Partners
This $300 Crypto Could Be the Next 10x Play
Wall Street isn’t talking about it yet… but insiders are.
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$60+ billion locked in its ecosystem
Revenue actually growing (unlike most cryptos)
Token supply shrinking fast
Yet today, it trades around $300. Analysts are whispering it could hit $3,000+ once new regulations unleash trillions in institutional money.
The smart money is already moving.
Don’t wait until this story hits the mainstream.
Closing Call
Tomorrow, the tape will key off Chair Powell’s speech and any shutdown-dependent data that still trickles out. Jobless claims are penciled in, but treat timing as provisional while agencies are dark. If Powell leans dovish, tech/AI can press the highs; if he sounds wary, expect a quick gamma-grab lower before dip buyers try again.
Either way, the playbook holds: trade the mood (narrative leads when data’s scarce), hedge the math (options are telling you pros are), and let the minutes’ message sink in… policy is easing, but not on autopilot.
Nobody knows when the train will stop, so enjoy the ride… but don’t forget your seatbelt.