After an overnight tumble, U.S. stocks rallied throughout the day,  while Treasury yields and the dollar firmed, as nerves around regionals eased a notch after Thursday’s wobble. The KBW regional-bank index clawed back some losses and markets took comfort in the idea that recent loan-loss headlines look idiosyncratic, not systemic. Gold cooled from record highs and oil steadied, a classic “exhale” after a volatile week. On the tape’s narrative side, Trump called 100% China tariffs ‘unsustainable’ and confirmed a face-to-face with Xi in two weeks… enough to take some heat out of the trade story for now. 

Earnings helped, too. With the first big week of Q3 season done and over with, data showed 86% beating estimates and Street growth expectations nudging up toward ~9% YoY… fuel for dip-buyers and a reason the S&P drifted higher into the weekend. Europe didn’t share the mood (banks there stayed heavy on U.S. credit headlines), but the U.S. situation looked like cautious stabilization: stocks up, gold off highs, yields up a touch… risk appetite with a seatbelt on.

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AlphaArchitect takes aim at the cult of “buy and hold”, calling it seductive, but often misleading. Their piece points out that while legends like Munger preach stoic endurance through drawdowns, the real market has taught a harsher lesson: the most common outcome is not a graceful recovery…  it’s oblivion. Only a tiny fraction of stocks drive long-term gains. Most crash or underperform, and even winners often see 60–80% drawdowns.

They break it down with cold math. You don’t “beat the market” by waiting, you beat it by being in the few that survive. They lean on Mauboussin & Callahan’s drawdown / recovery dataset to argue that true upside comes after surviving the gut punches, not just clutching shares through them.

The take: “buy and hold” only works if you have deep conviction, mental capital, and a portfolio structure that can absorb 80% drawdowns without flipping into panic. Otherwise, it devolves into hope masquerading as discipline. In a market built on narrative gravity and rate risk, the edge often belongs to those who know when to let go, not just when to hold.

In this episode of The Long View, hosts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak break down what many are coming to realize: in this new regime, returns are less reliable than risk. They unpack how spikes in volatility now matter more than smooth alpha, and how true returns lie in riding (or avoiding) swings. It's not just about average performance, it’s about surviving the chaos.

They tap fresh data showing that whipsaw days have nearly doubled in frequency, and that drawdowns cause outsized damage even when longer trends hold. The conversation turns to how portfolio construction must evolve: dynamic hedges, optionality, and smaller “damage buffer” allocations become more necessary than leverage or momentum. The biggest shift: investors will earn more by keeping exposure than chasing upside.

For traders, this is a quiet manifesto. If the comeback trade seems inevitable, remind yourself it’s built on shaky bones. The biggest edge might be the loss you never take.

The world's wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money.

Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion.

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Weekends matter again. Traders will watch for tariff/trade headlines after Trump’s “unsustainable” line on 100% tariffs and that Xi meeting chatter; any back-and-forth could set Asia’s tone and spill into U.S. futures Sunday night. Also on the radar: more color on regional-bank credit (does calm hold?) and whether gold consolidates or attempts another breakout after today’s breather. Oil just posted a soft week; any OPEC+ or supply-route noise can change that quickly.

Monday’s setup leans on the earnings conveyor belt to keep sentiment afloat, with investors treating beats as confirmation that the “credit scare isn’t systemic” narrative is valid. 

The near-term tell: if yields drift higher and gold stays off the highs, the market’s willing to extend the risk bid; if yields slip and gold re-accelerates, hedging comes back fast. Net-net: treat Monday as a continuation test… does the calm stick, or was today just a relief bounce before the next headline?