
T&Q Evening Edition
Concentration & Compute
The Evening Rewind
The tape delivered a dose of catch-up today. The Dow leapt +1.29%, the S&P climbed +1.56%, and the Nasdaq surged +2.21%... breadth finally backing the rally. Gold roared, up ~3.2%, hinting that the safe-haven trade isn’t done yet. Oil also posted gains, though more modest. The picture: risk appetite coming back into vogue, but with hedges still on.
Macro ripples triggered part of the move. Fed minutes confirmed the divide: many officials favor cuts, but caution dominates in the face of sticky service inflation. Markets cheered any dovish inference. Meanwhile, whispers of China relaxing export curbs and European central banks signaling patience helped juice global sentiment.
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Your Evening Read
The New Normal of Stock Market Concentration
Ben Carlson digs into one of 2025’s most uncomfortable truths: stock market concentration isn’t a bug… it’s the new baseline. The top 10 companies now drive more than a third of the S&P 500’s returns, and Carlson shows that, statistically, this isn’t unusual anymore. The “Magnificent 7” have become a structural feature of modern markets, powered by network effects, winner-take-most dynamics, and massive cash flows.
Carlson dismantles the nostalgia for the “diversified” past. Even in earlier eras (the Nifty Fifty in the ’60s, the dot-coms in the ’90s) leadership was just as narrow when adjusted for market size. The twist this time is durability: today’s giants aren’t just fads, they’re infrastructure. They control cloud, AI, and consumer ecosystems, which gives them persistent pricing power.
Why it matters: For traders and allocators, this piece is a reminder that betting against concentration is like shorting gravity. Diversification still matters, but leadership is stickier than ever. If you want exposure to growth, you’re probably already holding the same crowded names, and that may not change until something truly rewires the economy.
Podcast Highlight
From Models to Machines: van Geelen Ramps Up the AI Buildout
In this episode, AI hardware veteran James van Geelen walks us through how the next leg of the AI boom is being built. And we don’t mean in algorithms, but in metal, wiring, and compute grids. He argues that after the “model wars,” the real race will be about scale, efficiency, and infrastructure resilience. Van Geelen emphasizes modular architectures, energy optimization, and edge compute as battlegrounds where winners will separate from the pack.
What makes it compelling is not just vision but execution. He lays out where capex is going: chiplets, liquid cooling, interconnects, and even power substations. His view is that some of the most explosive returns won’t come from new models, but from enabling environments. The AI “platformers” will profit if they win infrastructure, not just software.
For traders, that’s the shift: don’t just own the names in headlines. Start watching the names behind the wires for infrastructure, data center stocks, power, even specialty materials.
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Closing Call
Tomorrow’s industrial production and NY Fed manufacturing index will be the first real tests of whether the rebound has economic legs or is just another positioning squeeze. With CPI and payrolls still delayed by the shutdown, these reports could move markets more than usual… especially if they hint at cooling momentum beneath the surface.
Expect Fed chatter to dominate as well: remarks from Mester and Kashkari could swing sentiment fast if they sound skeptical of premature rate cuts. Traders will also keep one eye on the energy complex after oil’s rebound and another on AI infrastructure names following last week’s selloff. The tone for Tuesday is simple: cautious optimism, but on borrowed confidence. If the data falters or the Fed frowns, the rally could lose its footing just as quickly as it found it.