Markets ended higher after a day of searching for direction amid geopolitical headlines, fed speak and earnings reports. After Tuesday’s tariff turmoil, traders came in braced for fallout… but thanks to amendable china talk and blockbuster Q3 results from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley (BofA raised its net interest income outlook and delivered stronger-than-expected profits. MS crushed forecasts with a 45% jump in net income), the market got fresh fuel. 

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended higher, led by financials and small caps, while the Dow drifted slightly red as rotation took hold. Gold rallied again, crossing $4,200, and oil stayed soft after the IEA’s surplus warning. It was the kind of day where macro calm trumped geopolitics: the Fed’s “bias toward easing” was the market’s north star, even as the government shutdown dragged into its third week

If you’re closely following gold’s surge, don’t miss today’s read — indeed today gold might have glittered, but gold miners didn’t. Traders chased the metal but hesitated on the equities, wary of cost creep and policy fog.

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Quantpedia delivers a sharp heads-up: gold’s recent ascent may look bullish, but gold-mining stocks haven’t followed in step… and that divergence is a trap. Their data shows that during past gold surges, miners often underperformed due to leverage, cost inflation, debt loads, and investor rotation into bullion instead of equities. The piece walks through historical gold rallies and the odd-time disconnect between the metal and its “equity expression.”

They also point out that during volatile environments, miners are more sensitive to discount rates, capital expenditure missteps, and technical overhangs than to gold’s spot price. So while gold breaks records, many gold-mining names might stall or reverse, and that’s where the opportunity for downside risk lies.

Why it matters: In a market leaning on hedges and gold flows, traders might see miners as logical proxies. Quantpedia warns that proxies can betray you. This issue gives you your guardrails: never bet the metal, bet the structure, and keep an eye on miner fundamentals before doubling down.

On this edition of At the Money, Barry Ritholtz and Jeffrey Patak (Morningstar) dissect one of the most silent wealth killers: the investor return gap. The core insight: most investors don’t just lag benchmarks… they underperform the very mutual funds and ETFs they hold!

It’s not the fund’s fault, it’s how investors trade, time entries/exits, chase momentum, and bail at wrong moments. (Morningstar estimates a ~1.2% annual gap over the last decade, erasing ~15% of cumulative returns.)

Patak walks through how the gap is calculated (dollar-weighted returns vs time-weighted), and identifies behavioral leaks: chasing last year’s winners, under-allocating after drawdowns, overreacting to volatility. He also highlights one silver lining: retirement allocation vehicles (target-date, balanced funds) tend to narrow the gap, because they automate rebalancing and discourage big timing moves. The message: performance is less about picking the next winner than about not sabotaging your own process.

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Tomorrow's highlights include retail sales and industrial production — two data points that will likely command oversize attention with CPI and jobs still silenced. The shutdown’s economic drag — now measurable, trimming an estimated 0.1% per week off GDP — is the other cloud to watch

Abroad, the IMF and World Bank both hinted that policy paralysis in Washington could dent global growth expectations, meaning traders will key off any fresh Fedspeak that reaffirms Powell’s dovish bend.

Heading into Thursday, expect more of the same uneasy optimism: gold likely stays firm, crude may keep bleeding, and small caps could extend their quiet outperformance if yields stay tame. Think of it this way: the market wants to believe the Fed’s got its back, but as today’s At the Money podcast reminds us, the biggest risk isn’t missing the trade…  it’s mistiming your own conviction.