This morning, we called for a cautiously optimistic setup if soft labor data kept Fed pivot bets alive…  and that’s exactly how the day played out. ADP confirmed slower hiring momentum, pushing rate-cut odds to 96% by mid-afternoon, while Powell’s subtle growth-friendly comments reinforced the dovish tilt. Yields eased, bonds stabilized, and gold (after yesterday’s breakout) cooled slightly but remains firmly in safe-haven territory.

Our other big call? Tech leadership would decide the day, and it definitely delivered. Alphabet extended yesterday’s surge, Apple and Microsoft climbed, and the Nasdaq outperformed despite continuing lack of breadth. 

We also got an unexpected twist: American Eagle exploded +30% on a huge earnings beat, sparking a retail rally even as healthcare lagged on Molina’s downgrade. It was a session defined by tech-driven momentum and surprise stock-specific pops rather than broad participation.

Globally, fragmentation deepened just as we warned this morning. Japan rallied on bond-market calm, China sank ~2.5% on regulatory fears, and India surged after GST tax cuts fueled consumption bets. 

With tomorrow’s NFP report looming, positioning is clear: bonds bid, tech leading, gold holding near highs. But under the surface, breadth remains fragile despite our best hopes, and Friday’s jobs print now stands as the make-or-break catalyst for whether today’s cautious optimism extends… or unwinds FAST.

Think tech always wins, large caps dominate, and the U.S. leads 2025? 

Ben Carlson says “think again”… and brings the receipts with some top-shelf chart goodness to gawk at. 

This eye-opening breakdown reveals how small-cap value stocks have quietly outperformed over the past five years, even internationally… how gold has beaten the S&P this century… and that the Nasdaq’s long-term total return only averages 8% when you include the dot-com crash. 

You might also be surprised to learn that most other major economies are outshining U.S. markets this year. Plus some other curious datapoints that invite us to reconsider some major narratives.

President Trump promised to make America the leader of artificial intelligence.

That's why Jeff Brown believes he's about to grant what he calls "national security status" to this little-known company…

Sending shares higher than anyone can imagine.

This is the only company in the U.S. that can mine a metal that's critical to the $100 trillion AI boom.

Click here to get details on this virtual monopoly.

The world isn’t deglobalizing — it’s reorganizing. 

In this episode of The Long View, Capital Economics’ Neil Shearing explains why the global economy isn’t retreating inward but splitting into competing spheres of influence.

Supply chains for critical tech, energy, and defense are being redrawn around political alliances, while everyday consumer goods keep flowing freely. For investors, this creates an unusual paradox: global trade volumes may stay high, but trade patterns and winners will shift dramatically.

Shearing warns that this fractured reality brings more volatility, uneven inflation, and sharper policy shocks ahead. The dollar’s dominance is likely to remain intact, but markets should prepare for faster divergence between regions, industries, and asset classes. 

In short: the era of synchronized globalization is over and done for…  and navigating the coming decade requires trading on regional power plays rather than assuming the world moves as one.