Markets Stabilize After Fed — All Eyes on PCE and Confidence This Week

Markets wrapped up a volatile week shaped by central bank decisions, geopolitical developments, and cautious corporate signals. The S&P 500 rose 1.4%, the Dow increased over 1.9%, and the Nasdaq gained almost 1.3%, with large-cap tech rotating into market leadership once again.

The Federal Reserve held rates steady but kept its projection for two cuts later this year, even as it raised its inflation forecast and trimmed its growth outlook. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that tariff-driven price pressures appear transitory, but markets weren't reassured—stocks and yields reversed sharply post-meeting.

FedEx and Nike both flagged concerns in their earnings reports, citing industrial softness and tariff-related headwinds. Economic data offered a mixed picture: strong existing-home sales, steady jobless claims, and a weak leading index all pointed to a cooling, but still stable, economy.

Geopolitical tensions remained elevated, with Israel resuming strikes in Gaza, and Trump and Putin continuing ceasefire discussions centered on Black Sea shipping and energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, the administration advanced efforts to expand domestic mineral production and shutter the Department of Education.

As triple witching expiration added a final jolt of volatility, investor focus now turns to positioning for the end of Q1—and what lies ahead in Q2.

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On Friday, U.S. equity markets displayed mixed results. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each edged up 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%. This modest uptick meant the end of a four-week losing streak for these indices.

Key Market Drivers

Treasuries & Commodities

Asia (March 24):

Europe (as of 6:00 AM ET):

As we enter the final week of March, markets appear poised for a quieter stretch—at least on the surface. But with a full slate of economic data and key corporate earnings on deck, investors will have plenty to digest as they look ahead to Q2.

Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence report and Friday’s core PCE inflation data will serve as bookends for the week’s macro narrative. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (core PCE) will be especially important following last week’s revised inflation forecast and the administration’s continued tariff rhetoric. We’ll also see the final estimate of Q4 GDP on Thursday, along with weekly jobless claims, which continue to hover near historic lows.

On the earnings front, several bellwether names will help shape sector sentiment:

After last week’s post-Fed volatility and a modest rebound into Friday’s close, markets are searching for direction. While sentiment has stabilized, positioning remains cautious—and the path forward may be shaped less by headlines and more by how well the data holds up.