Markets Rebound, Fed Decision Looms & Geopolitical Risks in Focus

Markets are stabilizing after last week's volatility, with U.S. equities rising for a second straight day on Monday. The S&P 500 gained 0.85%, outperforming the Nasdaq, as February retail sales showed a modest 0.2% rebound, easing fears of a slowdown. Investors remain in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday, where the Fed is expected to hold rates at 4.25%-4.5% but could signal whether three rate cuts are in play this year. Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with Trump set to speak with Putin today about a Ukraine ceasefire, and Israel resuming strikes on Gaza. Meanwhile, Alphabet re-enters acquisition talks for cybersecurity firm Wiz, and PepsiCo moves to acquire Poppi, reflecting an active M&A landscape. Futures are pointing higher this morning, but with tariffs and economic uncertainty still looming, traders must remain nimble and be prepared for quick swings.

The U.S. has traditionally been a magnet for foreign direct investment (FDI), boasting a stock of around $5 trillion. Recent tariff policies under President Trump are prompting global companies, from Asahi to TSMC, to consider expanding production within the United States. This shift aims to circumvent trade barriers and capitalize on the vast American consumer market, which accounts for nearly 30% of global spending. While this trend could bolster domestic manufacturing and job creation, the long-term implications for global trade dynamics remain uncertain. (Read full story…)

China's economic recovery heavily relies on reviving consumer spending, which has been sluggish despite various government initiatives. The recently unveiled "special action plan" includes measures like installing more elevators in multi-story buildings and extending children's clinic hours during flu season. However, these efforts may fall short of stimulating significant consumption growth, raising concerns about the effectiveness of such policies in rejuvenating the domestic market. (Read full story…)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces the challenging task of steering monetary policy amid pressures from the Trump administration. As the Fed convenes this week, markets anticipate that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, investors are keenly observing the Fed's economic projections and any signals regarding future rate adjustments, especially in light of recent economic data and administrative policies.​ (Read full story…)

Alphabet Inc., Google's parent company, has re-entered negotiations to acquire cybersecurity firm Wiz. This potential acquisition underscores Alphabet's commitment to enhancing its cloud security offerings and addressing growing cybersecurity threats. The deal, if finalized, could position Alphabet more competitively in the cloud services market.​ (Read full story…)

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," experienced a sharp increase followed by a rapid decline recently. This pattern suggests that while investors initially reacted strongly to market uncertainties, confidence may be rebounding. Understanding these fluctuations can provide insights into market sentiment and potential stock performance.​ (Read full story…)

Facing elevated construction costs and affordability concerns, an increasing number of home builders are reducing prices to attract buyers. This trend indicates challenges within the housing market, as builders strive to balance profitability with market demand. Prospective homeowners might find new opportunities amid these price adjustments.​ (Read full story…)

U.S. Treasury yields remained stable as investors analyzed the latest housing market data and anticipated upcoming Federal Reserve decisions. Stable yields often reflect market participants' cautious optimism or uncertainty regarding future economic conditions.​ (Read full story…)

A federal judge has halted President Trump's executive order aimed at deporting Venezuelan nationals allegedly involved in gang activities. The ruling emphasizes the judiciary's role in checking executive actions and highlights the complexities of immigration policy enforcement.​ (Read full story…)

A recent Bank of America survey reveals the largest-ever decline in fund managers' exposure to U.S. equities. This shift reflects growing concerns over valuations, geopolitical tensions, and potential economic slowdowns. Investors are increasingly seeking diversification and exploring alternative markets.​ (Read full story…)

Chinese authorities are examining billionaire Li Ka-shing's agreement to sell a significant portion of his global ports business to a BlackRock-led consortium. The scrutiny focuses on potential breaches of national interests, underscoring the geopolitical sensitivities surrounding strategic infrastructure assets.​ (Read full story…)

U.S. stock markets continued their rebound on Monday, marking the second consecutive day of gains following a recent 10% decline.

With the Federal Reserve's policy meeting scheduled for this week, investors are speculating on potential monetary policy adjustments. The consensus anticipates that the Fed will maintain current interest rates, but market participants are keenly awaiting any forward guidance.​

U.S. retail sales data presented a mixed picture, with a soft headline number but underlying resilience in certain segments. This data has added to the cautious optimism among investors. 

Markets are attempting to stabilize after recent volatility, with investors shifting focus to the Fed’s upcoming rate decision and inflation data. While economic growth appears to be slowing, the expectation of multiple rate cuts in 2025 is providing a buffer against deeper market declines.

Despite short-term uncertainty, the S&P 500 remains resilient, and historical trends suggest pullbacks are part of a healthy market cycle. As the Fed decision and corporate earnings unfold this week, investors should stay diversified and patient, as long-term fundamentals remain intact.