From the T&Q Desk
Good morning! Big week ahead as financial markets will be closely monitoring key developments in monetary policy and consumer spending. On Monday, the U.S. Census Bureau will release February's retail sales data, providing insights into consumer behavior amid recent economic uncertainties.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on March 18-19. While the Fed is anticipated to maintain the current interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%, investors will scrutinize the Committee's updated economic projections and any indications of future rate adjustments, especially in light of potential economic slowdowns and rising inflation expectations.
Additionally, earnings reports from major corporations, including Nike and FedEx, will shed light on corporate performance and consumer demand trends.
Overall, this week's data releases and Fed communications will be pivotal in shaping market expectations and investor sentiment regarding the economic outlook.
Featured Articles
President Trump to Discuss Ukraine Peace with Putin
President Trump announced plans to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, aiming to negotiate an end to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This initiative underscores the administration's efforts to address international tensions and seek diplomatic resolutions. (Read full story…)
Proposal to Build Homes on Federal Land
The administration is exploring plans to develop housing on federal land to address the nation's housing shortage. This proposal could transform vast stretches of public land into residential areas, potentially easing housing market pressures. (Read full story…)
Apple Faces New Challenges Beyond Tariffs
Apple is confronting issues that extend beyond tariffs and declining iPhone sales, including supply chain disruptions and increased competition. These challenges may impact the company's market position and profitability. (Read full story…)
Market at a Crossroads Amid Forecast Cuts
RBC Capital Markets has become the third firm to lower its year-end forecast for the S&P 500, citing heightened volatility and economic headwinds. This adjustment reflects growing uncertainty in the markets.
OECD Lowers U.S. Growth Outlook
The OECD has reduced its growth projections for the U.S. economy, attributing the downgrade to trade uncertainties and tariff impacts. This revision signals concerns about the broader economic implications of current trade policies. (Read full story…)
Gold Surpasses $3,000, Potential for Further Gains
Gold prices have exceeded $3,000 per ounce, driven by investor anxiety over economic growth due to trade policies, with potential for further appreciation as market conditions evolve. (Read full story…)
Treasury Secretary Addresses Financial Stability
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the White House is actively working to prevent a financial crisis, emphasizing measures to maintain economic stability amid market fluctuations. (Read full story…)
China's Consumption Rebounds Amid Tariff Pressures
China reports an uptick in consumer spending, offering a positive signal for its economy despite the pressures from international tariffs. This resilience may help mitigate some adverse effects of the trade war.
Previous Trading Day Summary – March 14, 2025
U.S. stock markets experienced a significant rebound on Friday, marking the best single-day performance since November. However, this rally was insufficient to prevent the fourth consecutive weekly decline across major indices.
Key Indices
S&P 500: Increased by 2.1%, closing at 5,638.94.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose 1.7%, closing at 41,500.
Nasdaq Composite: Climbed 2.6%, ending at 17,800.
Market Drivers
Easing Government Shutdown Concerns
The market received a boost following indications that a government shutdown would be averted. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's unexpected support for a six-month provisional bill proposed by Republicans alleviated some political uncertainty, contributing to the market's positive performance.
Tech Sector Rally
Technology stocks led the rally, with companies like Nvidia and Palantir experiencing significant gains. This surge helped lift the Nasdaq Composite, highlighting investor interest in tech amid broader market volatility.
Earnings Recap
March 14, 2025 - Earnings Recap
Gogo Inc. (GOGO): Reported revenues of $137.8M compared to consensus estimates of $97.3M and EPS of -0.22 against estimates of 0.06.
Economic Data Recap & Upcoming Releases
March 14, 2025 – Key Economic Data
Consumer Sentiment Index: Increased to 57.9 in March, indicating a modest improvement in consumer confidence.
March 17, 2025 – Key Economic Events to Watch
Retail Sales (February): Scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET, with expectations of a 0.7% month-over-month increase, rebounding from January's 0.9% decline.
Empire State Manufacturing Index (March): Also releasing at 8:30 AM ET, this index will provide insights into manufacturing activity in New York State.
Business Inventories (January): Set for 10:00 AM ET, offering data on inventory levels across various industries.
Housing Market Index (March): At 10:00 AM ET, this index will shed light on home builders' sentiment regarding current and future single-family home sales.
Federal Reserve Meeting: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its two-day meeting, with a decision on interest rates expected on Wednesday.
Overnight Market Performance
Asian Markets (March 17, 2025):
Nikkei 225: Increased by 0.5%, closing at 37,200.
Shanghai Composite: Rose 0.8% to 3,450, buoyed by stronger-than-expected industrial production and retail sales data.
European Markets (As of 6:00 AM ET):
FTSE 100: Up 0.3% to 8,620, supported by gains in mining and energy stocks.
DAX: Advanced 0.4% to 22,900, driven by positive economic sentiment data.
Pre-Market Pricing of Major U.S. Indices (As of 10:35 AM ET, March 17, 2025)
Security | Closing Price (3/14) | Current Price | Price Change | |
Futures | ||||
S&P 500 | 5640 | 5659 | 19 | 0.34% |
Nasdaq | 19712 | 19730.5 | 18.5 | 0.09% |
Dow | 41510 | 41705 | 195 | 0.47% |
Russell 2000 | 2044.1 | 2049.6 | 5.5 | 0.27% |
Commodities | ||||
Oil | 67.18 | 67.73 | 0.55 | 0.82% |
Nat Gas | 4.104 | 4.067 | -0.037 | -0.90% |
Gold | 3001.1 | 3005 | 3.9 | 0.13% |
Copper | 4.896 | 4.9295 | 0.0335 | 0.68% |
Forex | ||||
EURUSD | 1.08748 | 1.091 | 0.00352 | 0.32% |
GBPUSD | 1.29342 | 1.2977 | 0.00428 | 0.33% |
USDJPY | 148.613 | 148.66 | 0.047 | 0.03% |
USDCAD | 1.43688 | 1.4321 | -0.00478 | -0.33% |
USDCHF | 0.88495 | 0.8815 | -0.00345 | -0.39% |
Notable Pre-Market Movers:
CrowdStrike (CRWD): +6.4%. CrowdStrike Holdings and NTT Data said Monday they have expanded their partnership to combine NTT's managed cybersecurity services with the CrowdStrike Falcon cybersecurity platform.
Carnival (CCL): +4.2%.
Final Thoughts & Market Outlook
Markets remain highly unpredictable, with short-term sentiment dictated more by political developments than by economic data. While inflation is cooling and the labor market remains strong, investors are struggling to trade around shifting policy rhetoric from the administration, particularly on tariffs and geopolitical issues.
Despite this challenging trading environment, it's important to keep perspective. The S&P 500 is now roughly 10% off its mid-February highs, but this kind of pullback is not unusual in a long-term bull market. Historically, these corrections have presented opportunities rather than signals of a structural decline.
Looking ahead, this week’s Federal Reserve meeting will be a key moment, as policymakers assess whether recent inflation data supports the case for rate cuts. In the meantime, expect volatility to persist, as markets react to both economic releases and White House commentary. Investors should remain disciplined and diversified, as global markets and investment-grade bonds continue to provide relative stability.