Eyes on the Fed and Fresh Data as Quarter-End Approaches

Good morning! U.S. futures are set to open slightly lower, as markets continue to stabilize after the turmoil of the last month and await a fresh round of economic catalysts. While yesterday’s session was buoyed by optimism around a more measured tariff rollout, today’s focus shifts toward manufacturing activity and commentary from key Fed officials.

On the data front, February durable goods orders will offer a window into business investment trends, especially in the face of supply chain uncertainty and shifting trade policy. Economists expect a modest rebound in core capital goods, which would signal continued momentum in industrial activity.

We’ll also hear from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, both of whom could offer market-moving insights on how the central bank is weighing rate cuts amid evolving inflation dynamics and geopolitical risks.

With earnings season relatively light today, attention remains on macro developments and policy signals. Investors will be watching closely to see whether markets can hold their footing as the quarter draws to a close and trade rhetoric remains front and center.

Trump’s Expanding Trade Agenda Faces Economic Headwinds

The Trump administration’s expanding use of tariffs has started to show economic strain, as businesses and markets weigh the long-term costs of prolonged trade disruptions. While some targeted measures have clear strategic goals, economists warn that unpredictability and scope creep could weigh on growth and investment, especially if global retaliation intensifies. (Read full story…)

Wall Street Eyes Opportunity in Distressed Assets

Some asset managers on Wall Street are viewing the current environment of policy-driven volatility as a golden opportunity. Rising rates, regulatory changes, and tariff disruptions are expected to increase financial stress in certain sectors—creating potential for high-return investments in distressed assets and special situations. (Read full story…)

Dollar Tree to Divest Family Dollar for $1 Billion

Dollar Tree Inc. has announced plans to sell its Family Dollar business for $1 billion, aiming to streamline operations and focus on its core brand. The divestiture is expected to enhance shareholder value and improve operational efficiency.​ (Read full story…)

Amazon Explores Generative AI with Shopping and Health Assistants

Amazon is testing new shopping and health assistants powered by generative AI, marking a significant push into advanced artificial intelligence applications. This initiative aims to enhance customer experience and solidify Amazon's position at the forefront of AI innovation.​ (Read full story…)

Potential Copper Import Tariffs on the Horizon

The Trump administration is considering implementing tariffs on copper imports within the coming weeks, a move that could have significant implications for various industries reliant on the metal. This development underscores the administration's ongoing focus on trade policies affecting key commodities. (Read full story…)

Treasury's Cash Reserves Dwindling Ahead of 'X Date'

The U.S. Treasury is rapidly depleting its cash reserves, bringing attention to the approaching 'X Date'—the point at which the government may face challenges in meeting its financial obligations. This situation highlights the urgency for fiscal policy decisions to address the looming funding shortfall. (Read full story…)

Stocks Extend Gains on Trade Optimism and Economic Data

U.S. equity markets closed higher for a third straight session Tuesday, building on Monday’s rally as investors responded positively to signals that the White House may adopt a more measured approach to upcoming reciprocal tariffs. The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Dow edged up 0.01%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.5%, led by strong performances from large-cap tech names including Apple, Amazon, Google, and Tesla. Communication services and consumer discretionary stocks were among the day’s top-performing sectors, while more defensive areas like utilities and healthcare lagged.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continued its sharp retreat, falling below 17 and now down over 20% from recent highs, reflecting a more stable market tone. Bond yields declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield settling near 4.32% after peaking above 4.37% earlier in the session. In currency markets, the U.S. dollar eased slightly against major peers as tariff fears moderated.

Economic Data Mixed: Services Strength, Confidence Slides

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9 in March—its fourth consecutive decline and the lowest reading since January 2021. The expectations component dropped to a 12-year low of 65.2, as households cited concerns about inflation and future job prospects. Despite the weaker sentiment, retail activity remains steady, with a notable uptick in intentions to purchase big-ticket items like electronics and appliances.

On housing, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index showed a 4.7% annual gain in January, matching forecasts. Home price growth continues to reaccelerate amid tight supply and low transaction volumes, particularly in markets like New York, Chicago, and Boston. Separately, new home sales for February came in at an annualized pace of 676,000, just below expectations, with regional performance mixed. The median home price slipped slightly year-over-year to $414,500.

Commodities & Global Markets

Gold advanced to $3,025.90 an ounce, maintaining a firm footing near record highs. Oil prices were little changed at $69.00 per barrel, stabilizing after news of a Black Sea ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia and as OPEC+ reiterated plans to reduce overproduction in the months ahead. European stocks posted moderate gains, with auto shares leading on optimism that not all U.S. tariffs will be implemented on April 2. In Asia, Chinese and Japanese markets were also higher as investors welcomed the truce and softening trade rhetoric.

Pre-Market Reports

Post-Market Reports

Asia (March 26):

Europe (as of 6:00 AM ET):

US Pre-Market (As of 6:30 AM ET, March 25, 2025)

As we move into the final stretch of the quarter, markets appear to be finding a steadier footing. Trade concerns, while still present, have eased somewhat following signals of a more targeted approach to tariffs—giving investors room to refocus on fundamentals. Today’s durable goods report and Fed commentary will help shape expectations around growth and monetary policy heading into Q2.

While volatility could return as we approach the April 2 tariff deadline and key inflation data later this week, recent strength in tech and consumer sectors, along with signs of resilience in housing and services, suggest there’s still a solid foundation underneath the surface. For now, patience and balance remain key as markets navigate a fluid policy landscape.